本研究針對目前臺灣電力結構之問題,提出改善的建議,目的為擬定未來臺灣永續的電力政策。 研究方法則為以解決臺灣目前電力供需端所面臨之問題為出發點,並參考國際上能源情境報告書,以LEAP能源模型為主體,並透過電力流分析解構電力系統、生命週期評估計算該情境下電力供給結構所產生之環境衝擊,整合成本土化之電力政策評估工具。最後利用此工具,結合情境分析法,試圖建立數種臺灣電力情境,並分析該情境之環境衝擊,最後得出結論並對臺灣未來電力政策之發展方向給予建議。 分析台灣電力之問題乃是具爭議性的發電結構(核能),以及產業耗電用於出口,且需求持續成長。本研究以發電結構(擴大核能或削減核能)與提升產業用電效率,作為發展台灣電力情境之關鍵因子。從LEAP模型分析得知,2010年至2025年間,削減核能使用比擴大核能使用之總環境負荷低25%;提升產業用電效率比未提升之用電量低16.3%、溫室氣體排放低21%、總環境負荷低11-25%;若結合削減核能使用與提升產業用電效率,2025年總環境負荷比2010年低15%。故本研究建議台灣未來的電力政策發展方向,應朝削減核能使用與抑制關鍵出口產業、提升用電效率邁進。
This study directs against the problem of the electric structure of Taiwan at present, to make recommendations for improvement and draft the sustainable electric policy. The study sorts the literatures of country’s electric power issues about supply and demand at first. And consulting the International energy administration (IEA) and the Green peace organization making the energy policy considers several driving forces. Then using the scenario analysis, sets up six kinds of Taiwan’s electric situation. In addition, combining Taiwan’s electric flow analysis (IO analysis) with life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) in LEAP model, which developing from Stockholm Environmental Research Institute, to become a local assessment tool. Finally, importing six kinds of electric situation to LEAP model gets the environment impact of every situation. It is analyzed that the question of electricity of Taiwan is the disputed power generating structure (nuclear energy) ,and the industry uses power for the export, and the demand grows up continuously. This study regards the power generating structure (expand nuclear energy or cut down the nuclear energy) and improving industry using power efficiency as the driving forces to input LEAP model. Analyze from LEAP model that learns, between 2010 to 2025, cut down to expand the total environmental impact is lower 25%; improve to constant the power consuming is lower 16.3%, greenhouse gas emissions is lower 21%, total environmental impact is lower 11-25%. If combines cut down with improve the 2025 total environmental impact is lower 15% than 2010. So this study advises Taiwan future electric policy developing direction should towards cut down nuclear energy use and raise efficiency of power consuming.