以動態一般均衡模型評估石油稅對台灣經濟之影響

The Impact on Oil Tax of Taiwan: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Approach

黃孝怡(Hsiao-Yi Huang)

指導教授 ： 林建甫

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.02875

摘要

本文試圖以發展並估計一個新凱恩斯動態隨機一般均衡模型以探討石油稅對台灣經濟的影響。本文主要依循ChristianoChristiano、Eichenbaum and Evans(2005）、Ireland (1997) 與Peersmanand Stevens (2012)發展的模型，模型的結構參數以Bayesian方法估計，模型構建假設調整工資的頻率較少。在此模型中，石油作為生產的輸入，也是消費的一部分，石油和其他類型的消費產品之間有靈活的替代彈性。我們並模擬具有石油稅時動態隨機一般均衡模型的結果並和比較根據不同的石油稅率假設時動態隨機一般均衡模型的結果。
本文的主要結果是生產要素的衝擊，消費者偏好衝擊，工資調整成本衝擊將立即引起輸出和附加價值的生產消費的提升。資金利用率造成輸出的提升導因於的勞動量的改變。價格調整成本衝擊、石油價格衝擊將升通貨膨脹和減緩消費。利率調整的成本衝擊將使輸出和附加值商品下降。石油稅會影響消費者的偏好並加強價格調整的負面影響，石油稅也將減少工資調整的效應、消費和生產。不同石油稅率造成的估計衝擊沒有明顯的不同。在政策的意義上來說，石油稅可能會降低石油的消費量並衝擊經濟成長，但不同類型的石油稅間不會有明顯的差別。

關鍵字

New Keynesian ； DSGE模型 ； 石油稅

並列摘要

This paper is an attempt to develop and estimate a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of Taiwan. In this paper, the model is following Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans(2005), Ireland (1997) and Peersman and Stevens (2012).The structural parameters of this model are estimated by using a Bayesian approach and the model is constructing by being assumed to adjust wages infrequently. Oil is used as an input to production and is also a part of the household’s consumption in this paper.There is a flexible elasticity of substitution between oil and other types of consumption goods in the consumption bundle. We also simulate the DSGE model including oil tax and compare the results under various oil tax rules.
The main results of this paper are the production factor shock, consumer preference shock, wage adjustment cost shock will immediately rise output and the value-add production consumption. The capital utilization shock will rise output due to the raise of number of labor. The price adjustment cost shock, oil price shock will rise inflation and fall consumption. The interest rate adjustment cost shock will fall output and added-value goods.Then the oil tax will affect the consumer preference and strengthen the negative effects of price adjustment, and the oil tax will reduce the effects of wage adjustment, the consumption and production. The estimated impulses between the oil tax rule which the amount of oil tax is proportion to oil price and the oil tax rule which is that the amount of oil tax is proportion to the amount of oil are not obviously different.
The main contribution of this paper is that we simulate how the exogenous shocks would affect macroeconomic by using the estimated DSGE model. And the numerical results show that the variables are not substantially affected by the presence of nominal rigidities. This paper also aims to explore the complications of the effects between these exogenous shocks. The suggestions of this paper are followings. First, the oil tax would reduce oil consumption and impact economic growth. Second, the effects of different types of oil tax are not obviously different.

並列關鍵字

New Keynesian ； DSGE model ； oil tax

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