台灣石油價格、財政政策與中央政府債務餘額之總體計量研究

A Marco-Econometric Research on Oil Price Fiscal Policy and Government Debt in Taiwan

謝依帆(Yi-Fan Hsieh)

指導教授 ： 林建甫

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2010.10560

摘要

在金融海嘯後，各國政府皆採取擴張性的財政政策，藉由刺激消費，以求達到景氣復甦的目的。然而，在各國採取積極的擴張性政策之後，大多數的國家皆面臨了預算嚴重赤字的問題，進而使得各國政府債務餘額佔GDP的比例大幅度的增加，使得民眾對於這些國家逐漸失去信心。近來，這些國家也面臨破產的問題，例如希臘、西班牙、愛爾蘭、葡萄牙、英國與日本等。此外，由於各國擴張性的財政政策，使得原物料的價格在這段期間也大幅的上揚，其中石油是其中最重要的原物料之一，大部分的生產活動皆須用到石油。因此，石油價格的上升，會使得生產的成本上升，進而影響整體的經濟環境。

本研究的目的即希望利用總體計量模型來估計當石油價格、課稅政策與中央債務餘額佔GDP之比例大幅變動下所產生的衝擊，對總體經濟造成的影響。

模型中共有78條方程式，其中有45條結構方程式與33條定義式，76個內生變數與13個外生變數。模型靜態測驗的期間為1994年第一季到2009年第四季，並預測2010年第一季到2012年第四季的國內經濟走勢。樣本外的預測與情境分析的結果大多符合經濟直覺，文末則點出未來維護及修正模型的方向。

透過本研究我們發現若是讓石油價格上升的幅度過大時，對國內所產生的衝擊較大，政府應讓油價採取有限度的上升，逐漸的反應國際油價，避免讓國內的經濟在短時間內大幅的衰退。而在課稅方面，透過課間接稅的方式達到增稅的目的對國內經濟環境所產生的衝擊是較小的。因此，政府要增稅時，應透過間接稅的方式來課稅。當政府增稅用來降低政府債務餘額佔GDP比例的時候，要採取每季降低的方式，會使得所產生的對國內經濟負面影響較小，經濟衰退的幅度也較少，是較合理的方式。

關鍵字

石油價格 ； 直接稅 ； 間接稅 ； 中央政府債務餘額 ； 總體計量季模型

並列摘要

During the aftermath of the economic crisis, governments from all nations adopted the expansive fiscal policy by stimulating the amounts of consumption to reach the goal of economic revitalization. Yet, after the execution of the expansive policy, most nations faced severe budget deficit, which caused drastic increases in their central government debt, and resulted in the gradual loss of people’s faith in the government. Recently, these nations also faced the problem of bankruptcy, for instances: Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Great Britain, and Japan. In addition, the prices of raw materials rose fiercely; among them, oil are one of the most important raw materials, since most of the production processes require it. Therefore, the increase in oil prices will result in the increase in production costs, affecting the entire economic environment.

The purpose of this research is to use the macroeconomic to estimate the impact on the whole economy caused by the increase in oil prices, tax policies, and variations in central government debt ratio to GDP.

Within the model there are 78 equations, 45 structural equations, 33 definition formulas, 76 endogenous variables and 13 exogenous variables. The model’s static test took place in the period between the first quarter of 1994 and the fourth quarter of 2009, and is used to predict the direction of domestic economy within the period between the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2012. The results, attained from the prediction and scenario analysis that took place outside of the sampling perimeter, mostly confirm the economic intuition. The end of the article points out the future direction for maintenance and correction of the model..

Through this research we discover that the impact on a nation is greater if the oil prices were allowed to rise unlimitedly. Governments should restrain the increase on oil prices, making them gradual and reflective of the international oil price, and thus avoiding large recessions in domestic economy within a short period of time. On the aspect of taxation, achieving the goal in tax enhancement through indirect taxes has a small impact on the domestic economic environment. As a result, whenever the governments intend to increase taxes, they should do it through the indirect taxes. When governments collect tax to lower the national debt ratio to GDP, they should spread these taxes to different quarters in order to lower the negative impact on domestic economy; this will ease up the scale of economic recession, and is a rational solution.

並列關鍵字

Oil Price ； direct tax ； indirect tax ； central government debt balance ； Macroeconomic Model

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