包含失業隔閡之總供需估測模型

Taiwan Macro-econometric Model with Unemployment Gap

吳中書(Chung-Shu Wu) ； 高志祥(Jr-Shiang Gau) ； 蘇文瑩(Wen-Yin Su) ； 陳雅玫(Ya-Mei Chen) ； 單易(Yih Shann) ； 王淑娟(Shu-Chuan Wang) ； 蔡秀慧(Shiou-Huei Tsai) ； 黃純宜(Chwen-Yi Huang) ； 羅雅惠(Ya-Hui Lo)

《臺灣經濟預測與政策》 33卷1期 (2003/03) Pp. 111-160

https://doi.org/10.29629/TEFP.200303.0006

摘要

本文參考詹維玲等(1999)及吳中書等(1998)之總供需估測模型，擴充生產面設定，並加入代表勞動供給的勞動參與率函數，嘗試估計我國之無通膨失業率；再透過兩要素的生產函數，推估潛在產出，建構一個包含需求面與生產面行為之總合供需模型。除用於基準預測外，本文亦應用此模型對政府執行擴大內需政策的總體經濟效果進行模擬分析。

關鍵字

總體計量模型 ； 潛在產出 ； 無通膨預期失業率NAIRU ； 膨脹缺口 ； 擴大內需

並列摘要

To strengthen the framework of Taiwan's macro-econometric model, we modify the aggregate supply and labor market sectors of the simultaneous equation systems by Chan et al. (1999) and Wu et al. (1998), consider functions of labor force participation as labor supply, and estimate Taiwan's Non-accelerating Inflation Rates of Unemployment (NAIRU), which are introduced into aggregate production function to evaluate Taiwan's potential GDP. In addition to project the benchmark forecasts of Taiwan economy, this revised model is also used to assess the macroeconomic effects when the domestic demand expansion policy is undertaken.

參考文獻

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