領導風格與標準作業程序對中共對台決策之影響

中共對台決策過程向為神秘的黑盒子，究竟哪些因素與關鍵部門在對台決策過程中具有影響力，一直是外界關切的焦點。本文嘗試驗證「在中共的決策過程中，領導人的性格將決定領導風格，而領導風格將決定權力的分佈結構，若領導風格非強勢，部門的標準作業程序將能發揮作用。相反地，若領導風格強勢，部門的標準作業程序將因權力分佈的集中而不具作用。」。本文透過中共三位領導人與四個涉台相關部門的標準作業程序作為自變數，以1989年至2018年的中共對台政策作為依變數，透過七個案例的交叉比對來驗證影響中共對台決策的關鍵因素與關鍵部門究竟為何。本文研究發現，中共領導者的領導風格對其對臺政策的影響具有相當關鍵的作用，即便是相對弱勢的胡錦濤，在面對黨國利益的價值衝突之際，其對鷹派部門—也就是解放軍—的制約能力也相當強，這個現象暗示著後續的研究建議，也就是應針對中共領導者的成長背景、性格與其權力基礎進行更深入的探討，方能較釐清領導風格的差異，以及這個差異對政策的影響。另本文與現有許多學者的觀點不同的是，即便中台辦在中共國務院各部委之間屬於弱勢，但中台辦本身屬於中國共產黨的機構，並非屬於中共國務院的機構，為協調政務的方便而具備「國務院臺灣事務辦公室」之名，而正因為台辦實際上是黨務機構，因而賦予中台辦在中共中央與國務院各部委之間的溝通協調能力，故中台辦在當前中共對台決策中扮演關鍵部門的角色。

關鍵字

中共對台決策；領導風格；標準作業程序

並列摘要

The Taiwan policy making process of China is just like an opaque box. The researchers are always interested in which factors and departments own the conclusive influence during the decision making process. This thesis tries to prove that the leader’s personality would influence the power distribution between policy making units. If the leadership tends to moderation, the bureaucracy’s “Standard Operating Procedures (SOP)” could work more smoothly. Otherwise, if the leadership appears highly dominated, the role of the bureaucracy’s SOP could be not working. This thesis takes three different CCP’s General Secretaries and the SOPs from four handling Taiwan issue departments of China government as the independent variable and the China’s Taiwan policy from 1989 to 2018 as the dependent variable. According to this to analyze what is the main influence in China’s Taiwan policy making process. Meanwhile, doing cross-validation to find out the key factors and departments in making Taiwan policy process via these seven cases. The research finding of this thesis is the leadership plays a critical role in China’s Taiwan policy making process. Taking Hu Jintao case for an example, Hu has much weaker authority to bureaucracy that causes each time when opinions diverge occuring, the hawk inside China especially refering to PLA will display more capacities on making Taiwan policy. This phenomenon brings the fellowing research suggestion which is in the future we should study the CCP’s leader background more including his growing process, personality, and power condition in order to clarify his leadership for observating the influence to make Taiwan policy. Under the chinese Council of State system, Taiwan Affairs Office’s power is not necessary more than other departments, but actually Taiwan Affairs Office belongs to CCP not only to the Council of State. For the reason to coordinate easily, they use “one institution with two names” way putting the Taiwan Affairs Office in the Council of State system. However, the nature of Taiwan Affairs office is one part of CCP organization so it’s given the higher level to coordinate the departments of the Council of State. This makes the Taiwan Affairs Office become the most important unit in the process of Taiwan policy making.