臺灣地區不動產現貨指標與價格關聯性之縱橫資料研究

Panel Data Analysis of Real Estate Price and Indicators in Taiwan

廖慶雄(Ching-Hsiung Liao)

指導教授 ： 邱建良 ； 張鼎煥

淡江大學/商學院/財務金融學系碩士在職專班/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2011.00274

摘要

本文之研究採用內政部營建署委託「財團法人國土規劃及不動產資訊中心」建置之「台灣住宅資訊統計季報」資料。期間為2008年第1季至2010年第3季為止，以台灣地區本島22縣市共242筆Panel data資料，分析台灣地區房價之影響因子，主要是探討相關影響因子對全樣本及都會區、鄉村區和高不動產價格區與低不動產價格區之不動產價格變動影響因素是否不同，及其對不動產價格是否有一穩定均衡的關係，及其顯著性。
實證結果顯示和不動產價格關聯性較高的不動產指標，在供給面有住宅存量變動率、核發使用執照樓地板面積；在交易面有所有權第一次登記面積、總移轉登記面積；在金融面有新增購置住宅貸款平均貸款成數及新增購置住宅貸款平均利率六個指標。
且都會區及高不動產價格區的購屋者，相較於貸款成數而言，反而較在意房貸利率的高低。而鄉村區則剛好相反。

關鍵字

不動產現貨價格 ； 縱橫資料 ； 隨機效果

並列摘要

This study applies panel data to detect the interaction of real estate price and relative indicators in Taiwan. The quarterly data of real estate information from the first quarter 2008 to third quarter 2010 is made by the Construction and Planning Agency Ministry of the Interior (CPAMI) as a total of 22 counties and cities associated with 242 observations. To analyze the impact of factor in Taiwan’s real estate, mainly related to the impact factor of the sample and the whole metropolitan area, rural areas and areas of high real estate prices and low real estate prices and changes in areas of real estate prices are different factors, and its impact on real estate prices have a stable equilibrium relationship, and significant.
The empirical results show the relevance of higher real estate prices and real estate indicators, the supply side of residential stock in the rate of change, use license issued by floor area; have ownership in the transaction the first time face the registration area, the total transfer of the registration area; in the financial side a new housing loan and the average number of loans into new housing loan average interest rate of six indicators.

並列關鍵字

Real Estate Price ； Panel Data ； Random effect

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