經濟、能源消費及政策工具與溫室氣體排放之探討－以台灣之實證研究為例

自1990年代以來，全球氣候變遷議題已備受國際社會重視，聯合國氣候變化綱要公約（Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC）迄至2018年止，共計舉行24次締約國會議(Conference of the Parties, COPs)，係為達成綠色經濟為要旨，尤以在COP21所制定的巴黎協定，乃提倡各國應積極訂定自身國家減碳策略，並提出各國自訂減量目標的預期貢獻(Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDC)。世界各國為達成減排目標，已著重採行各項政策工具，以期達成減排目標，並促進經濟永續發展之目的。本研究為探討台灣經濟、能源消費及政策工具(包括環境稅、貿易政策及能源技術等)與溫室氣體排放之影響，乃參考基礎經濟理論與歷有文獻，探討環境品質與經濟成長之間是否呈現環境顧志耐曲線(Environment Kuznets curve, EKC)之倒U關係。據此，本文的研究對象係以1999年至2017年之台灣各類溫室氣體(〖包含CO〗_2、CH_4、N_2 O、HFC_S 、PFC_S 、SF_6 與NF_3)排放量為研究對象，並採用普通最小平方法(Ordinary least squares，OLS)進行實證分析。實證結果發現，人均GDP對於各項GHG之影響，僅有氧化亞氮符合EKC假說，形成一個倒U圖形；至於，其餘各氣體則大抵呈現正U圖形；環境稅對於各項GHG並未完全符合減量效果；能源消費對於各項GHG大抵呈現負向顯著影響；能源密集度對於各項GHG大抵呈現正向顯著影響；貿易條件對各項GHG之影響，分別呈現正向或負向的顯著影響。據此，本研究根據氣體之排放與來源做政策參考依據，提出對於能源、工業製程及產品使用相關產業須做出技術提升，並且參考國際間環境稅制之制定，對於各式溫室氣體提出政策意涵，包含:未來能源使用結構改變；提升能源使用技術；宜在出口加工品時改善產品之碳排放，經濟成長同時搭配節能減碳策略。

關鍵字

EKC ； GHG排放；政策工具；能源消費； GDP ；經濟

並列摘要

Since the 1990, the issue of global climate change has cough much attention from the international community. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has held 24 conferences of the parties(COPs) until 2018. To achieve a green economy, particularly the Paris Agreement reached at COP21, advocate that countries actively formulate carbon reduction strategies and propose Nationally Intended Nationally Determined Contributions(INDC). In order to achieve emission reduction targets, countries around the world have adopted various policy tools to achieve emission reduction targets and promote sustainable economic development. 　　In order to investigate the influence of energy consumption and policy tools (including environmental taxes, trade policies, energy technologies, etc.) on greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions in Taiwan's economy, this study referred to basic economic theories and historical literature to explore the inverted U relationship between environmental quality and economic growth based on the Environment Kuznets Curve(EKC). Accordingly, this paper takes Taiwan's GHG emissions(including CO_2、CH_4、N_2 O、HFC_S 、PFC_S 、SF_(6 ) and NF_3) from 1999 to 2017 as the study object and adopts Ordinary least Squares(OLS) to conduct empirical analysis. The empirical results show that only nitrous oxide meets EKC hypothesis and forms an inverted U graph. The others are positive with carbon emissions. The environmental taxes do not fully comply with the reduction effect of GHG; Energy consumption has a negative on each GHG. Energy intensity has a positive effect on each GHG; The influence of trade conditions on GHG are positive or negative, respectively. Based on the emission and source of gas as the policy reference, this study proposes that technology improvement and emission change should be made for the Energy Industry Processes and Products, and policy implications for GHG should be proposed by making use of the international environmental tax system, including: changes in the structure energy use; Improving technology for energy use; Improve the carbon emission of processed products when exporting, and to combine energy conservation and carbon reduction strategies with economic growth.