論美「中」貿易戰對台灣經濟之影響（2018年～2021年）

美國總統川普2018年3月依據301調查，懲罰中國大陸侵入美國智慧財產為由，宣布將對每年價值上看600億美元的中國大陸進口產品課徵報復性關稅，並在世界貿易組織（World Trade Organization, WTO）控訴中國大陸侵權行為。美國採取加徵關稅，來防堵中國大陸產品進入美國市場，表面上是改善美中之間的貿易逆差，但實際是為了打擊中國大陸高科技產業的發展；即是以「301條款」對決「中國製造2025」相互加徵關稅。美「中」貿易戰，日韓經貿摩擦升高，許多國家或地區經濟增漲率普遍下滑，但台灣經濟却逆勢上揚，成為中美、日韓經貿摩擦的「受益者」，「轉單效應」明顯，對美出口大幅增長；2021年5 月出口總值374億，與2020年同月相較，增加104億美元（+38.6%）；進口總額313億美元，與2020年同月相較，增91億美元（+40.9%）。因應貿易衝突，轉移產能調整供應鏈，轉移市場重心，危機似乎變成台商企業最大的轉機。美「中」關係雖然因為拜登政府上任而緩和；台灣企業加速累積競爭優勢，促進台灣產業升級；對外佈局，改變傳統製造業思維；提升產業的附加價值，讓研發能量留在台灣，輔導海外優質台商返台上市上櫃，活化資本市場。對內振興，重視地方經濟能量，強化高所得的內需經濟，藉此達到「留才」、「育才」與「引才」的目標。

關鍵字

301條款；中國製造2025 ；貿易戰；轉單效應

並列摘要

U.S. President Trump announced in March 2018 that based on the 301 investigation and punished mainland China for intruding into American intellectual property, he announced that he would impose retaliatory tariffs on imports from mainland China worth US$60 billion each year, and set aside Trade Organization, WTO) sued mainland China for infringement. The United States has adopted additional tariffs to prevent mainland Chinese products from entering the US market. On the surface, it is to improve the trade deficit between the United States and China, but it is actually to combat the development of China's high-tech industries; that is, it is a “clause 301” showdown. “Made in China 2025” will impose additional tariffs on each other. The U.S.-China trade war has increased Japan-South Korea economic and trade frictions, and many countries or regions have generally declined in economic growth rates, but Taiwan’s economy has bucked the trend and has become a "beneficiary" of China-US and Japan-South Korea economic and trade frictions. "Obviously, exports to the U.S. have increased significantly; the total value of exports in May 2021 was 37.4 billion, an increase of 10.4 billion (+38.6%) compared with the same month in 2020; the total import value was 31.3 billion, an increase compared with the same month in 2020. US$9.1 billion (+40.9%). In response to trade conflicts, shifting production capacity, adjusting the supply chain, and shifting the focus of the market, the crisis seems to have become the biggest turning point for Taiwanese companies. Although U.S.-China relations have eased since the Biden administration took office, Taiwanese companies have accelerated their competitive advantage and promoted Taiwan's industrial upgrading, shifted their external layout to change traditional manufacturing thinking, increased the added value of the industry, allowed research and development energy to remain in Taiwan, and coached overseas high-quality Taiwanese businessmen to return to Taiwan to list on the market and revitalise the capital market. To revitalize the domestic market, attach importance to local economic energy and strengthen the high-income domestic demand economy, so as to achieve the goals of “retention of talents”, “education of talents” and “induction of talents”.