蔡英文時期「新南向」政策的意涵與成效之研究

我國屬於典型的海島型經濟國家，對外貿易為經濟成長的主要動力，具有高度的貿易依存度與對中國大陸單一市場高度依賴的特性。因此，從1990年代迄今二十多年間，歷經李登輝、陳水扁與馬英九三位總統任內，政府陸續推動以「南進政策」、「南向政策」或「活路外交」為名的對外經貿政策，試圖透過政府政策與官方資源的投入來轉變台商偏好赴大陸投資的情形，以分散對外貿易投資的風險。蔡英文總統於2016年5月就任後，正式推動「新南向政策」，希望能夠整合各部會、地方政府、與民間企業團體之資源，從「經貿合作」、「人才交流」、「資源共享」與「區域鏈結」四大面向著手，與新南向國家創造共利互惠的永續合作方式，以達到「經濟共同體」與「區域聯盟」之意識。本文從政府歷年來南向政策發展回顧入手，透過蔡英文「新南向政策」的背景與內涵分析，對於政策執行近三年來的實際成效與遭遇的內、外部挑戰進行整體性的研究。結論認為「新南向政策」確立「以人為本」的核心應屬正確，但政策規劃缺乏足夠的創新與突破，在執行上也欠缺整體的協調合作，各部會各行其是，聚焦於短期的數字績效，未能長期深耕落實，加上處理兩岸關係的失敗，使政策成效不彰，也未能發揮所期待的分散風險效果。展望未來，政府應積極改善兩岸關係，積極審慎思考「南向」與「西進」的合作發展，才能使「新南向政策」後續推動更加順暢有效。

關鍵字

李登輝；陳水扁；馬英九；蔡英文；活路外交；兩岸關係；新南向政策；經貿合作；人才交流；資源共享；區域鏈結；政策評估；共利互惠；經濟共同體；以人為本；一帶一路

並列摘要

R.O.C is a typical island-type economy country.Foreign trade is the main driving force for economic growth. It has a high degree of trade dependence and is highly dependent on the single market in mainland China. So, from 1990 to the present, during the three presidential periods of Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian and Ma Ying-jeou, the government promoted foreign trade policy with “Southing Policy”, “Southward Policy” and “Flexible diplomacy” for more than 20 years. Trying to change the situation in which Taiwanese companies prefer to invest in China through government policies and official resources. The risk of foreign trade investment. To diversify the risk of foreign trade investment. President Tsai Ing-wen officially promoted the "New Southbound Policy" after taking office in May 2016. Hope to integrate the resources of various ministries, local governments and private enterprise groups. From the four aspects of "Economic and Trade cooperation", "Talent exchange", "Resource sharing" and " Blockchain ".Establish mutually beneficial and sustainable cooperation with the new southern countries and realize the awareness of “Economic Community” and “Regional Alliances”. In this thesis, the government has been reviewing the development of Southern policies for many years. Analysis of the Background and Connotation of Tsai Ing-wen's "New Southbound Policy". A holistic study of the actual effectiveness of policy implementation and the internal and external challenges encountered has been in place for nearly three years. Conclusion that the core of "People foremost" in the "new southbound policy" should be correct.But policy planning lacks sufficient innovation and breakthroughs. Every department will do its own thing.Focus on short-term digital performance.Failure to implement in the long run.Failure to deal with cross-strait relations has made the policy ineffective.Failure to achieve the effect of risk diversification. Looking ahead, the government should actively improve cross-strait relations. Actively and cautiously thinking about the cooperative development of "Southern" and "West-movement" will enable the follow-up promotion of the "New Southboun Policy" to be smoother and more effective.

並列關鍵字

Lee Teng-hui ； Chen Shui-bian ； Ma Ying-jeau ； Tsai Ing-wen ； Flexible diplomacy ； Cross-Strait relations ； New Southbound Policy ； Economic and Trade cooperation ； Talent exchange ； Resource sharing ； Blockchain ； Policy Evaluation ； Mutual benefit ； Econmic community ； People foremost ； Belt and Road