影響中美貿易赤字因素之分析

An Analysis of the Principal Determinants of the US - China Trade Deficit

馬安娜(Anna Maliavina)

指導教授 ： 柯大衛

淡江大學/國際研究學院/臺灣與亞太研究全英語碩士學位學程/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2019.00528

摘要

本研究的目的是弄清楚美國跟中國貿易的赤字是否由於不平的貨幣比率或者由於微分的儲蓄率形成。 研究壞繞兩個時期： 1. 1997-2017； 2. 2004-2017. 資料是按照每個月安排的。 根據作者的算， 貿易流的收入效果比較大並且具有時間的穩定性。 進口確定符合經濟的發展， 因此中國的更快的發展會取消跟美國的貿易的赤字。 價格比收入變化得更快。 一般來講， 人民幣的實在的價值跟中國對美國的進口的水準有負面的關係。 從進口與出口價格指數角度來看， 可以發現美國從中國的進口收到進口價格指數的深刻的影響: 價格指數越高，進口容量越低。儲蓄率對GDP不重要或者不屬於期望的效果。中國的FOREX 積累 對美國的出口不會有很大的影響。

關鍵字

進口 ； 出口 ； 貿易赤字 ； 價格指數 ； 實在的換比率

並列摘要

This thesis attempts to answer the question whether the merchandise US trade deficit with China is due to an artificially high exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar, or whether such deficits are due mainly to differential saving rates. The results encompass two time periods: 1997-2017 and 2004-2017 and the data frequency is monthly. According to the calculations, income effects on trade flows are large and consistent over time. Imports certainly respond to growth in the economy and faster growth in China would help to eliminate the trade deficit with the US. The price variable is less consistent than the income variable. In general, the real value of the RMB is negatively related to the flow of imports from China into the US. With regards to the issue of import and export price indexes, we find that US imports from China are very much impacted by changes in the import price index: a higher price index leads to a lower import flow. Inclusion of saving rates and debt to GDP ratios are either not significant or not signed as expected. Inclusion of variables of forex accumulation by China is not well correlated with exports to US.

並列關鍵字

import ； export ； trade deficit ； price index ； real exchange rate

參考文獻

“Accounting for Intermediates: Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added - ScienceDirect.” n.d. Accessed December 17, 2018. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002219961100122X.

“Adjusted Estimates of United States–China Bilateral Trade Balances: 1995–2002 - ScienceDirect.” n.d. Accessed December 17, 2018. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104900780300040X.

Aiello, Francesco, Graziella Bonanno, and Alessia Via. n.d. “Trade-Elasticities for China and the OECD Countries. Facts and Myths of Global Disequilibria,” 26.

Aziz, Jahangir, and Xiangming Li. 2008a. “China’s Changing Trade Elasticities.” China & World Economy 16 (3): 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2008.00111.x.

———. 2008b. “China’s Changing Trade Elasticities.” China & World Economy 16 (3): 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2008.00111.x.