中共推進「一帶一路」戰略意涵探析—以加強與「東協」合作為例

2013年9月，中共國家主席習近平於哈薩克納紮爾巴耶夫大學發表演講，表示借鑑絲綢之路留下寶貴經驗，橫貫東西、連接歐亞的絲綢之路，可以成為不同種族、不同信仰、不同文化背景之國家間，共用和平、共同發展的新絲綢之路。為使歐亞各國經濟發展更趨緊密、合作更為深入、發展空間更加廣闊，時隔一個月後，習氏於訪問印尼時又提出共建二十一世紀海上絲綢之路。自「一帶一路」提出後，各界對此戰略本質與中共意圖討論激烈，英國《金融時報》刊載的文章指稱，「一帶一路」將幫助中共從經濟、外交與軍事等三方面在亞洲確立地區領導地位，體現北京希望建立勢力範圍之意願，堪稱19世紀英俄爭奪中亞控制權之大博奕的現代版；反觀，大陸學者則強調「一帶一路」構想係基於國際與國內形勢發展變化提出，為實現和平發展之戰略舉措。本文由中共歷代領導人外交政策發展脈絡出發，探討中共民族意識形態與外交政策謀劃思維理則，同時結合習近平執政後內外部形勢變化，強化對習氏主政後整體國際戰略布局走向之思考，同時結合「一帶一路」政策內容，探討中共推動「一帶一路」戰略意涵，最後以與「東協」合作共建進展與面臨挑戰為例，分析「一帶一路」戰略今後發展趨勢。

關鍵字

「一帶一路」；全球發展戰略；區域合作

並列摘要

In a speech delivered at Kazakhstan's Nazarbayev University in September 2013, President Xi Jinping expressed that invaluable lessons learnt from the historical Silk Road proved that a transcontinental road connecting Europe and Asia, a ‘new Silk Road’, would allow people of all races, religions, and cultural backgrounds to jointly share peace and development. To further bolster economic development, cooperation, and potential between the countries of Europe and Asia, Xi would propose the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” a month later while visiting Indonesia. Since Xi’s proposal of the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), many countries have strongly debated China’s intention and the BRI’s strategic nature. According to the Financial Times, the BRI would secure China’s hegemony through economic, diplomatic, and military means; effectively establishing Beijing’s own sphere of influence. Hence, the BRI has been perceived as a modern-day version of the 19th century Great Game, where Britain and Russia once battled for control over central Asia. On the contrary, Chinese scholars insist that the BRI was proposed on a basis of international and domestic developments, being a strategic initiative to accomplish peace. Based on the development of diplomatic policies by preceding Chinese leaders, this paper seeks to understand Chinese nationalism as well as the rationale behind its diplomatic policies. It will examine the changes since Xi’s ascension to power, allowing us to further understand the developments of the Xi Administration’s international strategic layout. Furthermore, it will evaluate the strategic implications of China’s BRI alongside its policies. Lastly, this paper will seek to analyze present and future BRI developments by examining China’s previous cooperation experience with ASEAN.