不實賣家對電子商務之影響: 代理人基建模方法

本文目的在研究當電子商務市場上出現不實賣家，會對市場產生甚麼影響，並觀察在不同的市場條件之下，當消費者擁有不同程度的社會比較能力、個人學習能力、社會網路連線數下，會對市場做出甚麼反應。我們使用代理人基模擬方法，並參考Izquierdo et al.(2005)所提出的質量不確定性市場模型，加入信任度賽局模型(Abramczuk et al.,2014)中誠實和不實賣家的變數、賣家聲譽度，並為消費者代理人加入購買商品受騙後的預期質量變量，藉此進行模擬實驗。從研究結果可以發現，當不實賣家出現在質量不確定性市場上時會為市場帶來負面的影響，包括消費者對市場商品的預期質量下降，商品成交量和市場價格會下降、賣家收入會因而減少，在不實賣家愈多的市場環境，其影響愈明顯。然而在消費者擁有愈高的社會比較能力、個人學習能力、社會網路連線數時，消費者對資訊交換能力增加，受不實商品帶來的負影響會有所減少，對市場信心較佳。本文所得結論是當消費者掌握資訊愈多，受不實商品影響愈少，消費者的預期質量相對會比較高，網路電商的收入也比較高和穩定，無論在哪種誠實比例下的市場，網路連線數和社會比較能力比較高的市場環境下的消費者都較能克服不實商品影響購買信心的問題。不實商品在網路連線數和社會比較能力低下的市場環境中，其負影響的力量較大，反之亦然。

關鍵字

代理人基模型；不實賣家；電子商務

並列摘要

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of dishonest sellers in e-commerce markets. We use an agent-based to simulate and observe market reactions that under different information conditions, consumers social comparative abilities, individual learning abilities, and social networks. Our agent-based simulation method refers to the quality uncertainty market model proposed by Izquierdo et al. (2005), and adds the variables of honest and dishonest sellers (Abramczuk et al., 2014). The sellers’ reputation and the consumer agents’ expected quality variables after the purchase of the goods were deceived. We thereby conduct a series of simulation experiments. The experiment results show that when the dishonest sellers appear in the quality uncertainty market, it will have a negative impact on the market, including the consumer's expected quality of goods, the traded volume of goods, the market price and the seller’s revenue. However, when consumers have higher social comparative abilities, personal learning abilities, and social network connections, consumers will able to have an increased ability to exchange information, and reduced the negative impact of false goods. In this study,the conclusion is that when consumers have more information, the less affected by false goods. The higher the expected quality of consumers, the higher the revenue of e-commerce, and higher the stability, regardless of the different market conditions. Those consumers who have relatively high number of Internet connections and social comparative capabilities have better purchasing confidence. Dishonest sellers will have a greater negative impact in the market environment when the number of Internet connections and social comparison abilities are low.