胡錦濤對台懷柔政策運用的探討(2002-2012)

The research of Hu Jintao's conciliation policy to Taiwan(2002~2012)

王裕治(Yu-Chih Wang)

指導教授 ： 李大中

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2013.00805

摘要

2002年11月，胡錦濤接任中共中央總書記，面對內部、國際與兩岸關係的變化，他跳脫傳統思維的束縛，靈活彈性的策略，展現個人的領導風格。
有別於江澤民對台軟硬兼施的策略，胡錦濤對台採取懷柔政策，「軟的更軟，硬的更硬」的作風尤其明顯。其硬的作為立場堅定但偏於隱晦，而對台軟的作為不僅細緻，且觸角更為廣泛全面，從台灣赴陸投資、求學、就業及其他數據的顯示，證實胡錦濤對台政策的成效。
本文將從胡錦濤對台經濟、文化、政治及軍事四個層面，探討台灣受到大陸影響的程度，提出整體結論看法。並在這四個層面，歸納出問題的答案。探討胡錦濤對台懷柔的效能評析，大陸對台懷柔的內部變數，評估大陸下任領導者對台的政策作為，台灣內部應省思面對的問題。最後，在本文的研究架構，提出整體的政策建議，以確兩岸關係及國家發展的順遂。

關鍵字

懷柔政策 ； 外交休兵 ； ECFA ； 軍事互信機制 ； 魅力攻勢

並列摘要

In November 2002, Hu Jintao became the general secretary of Central Communists Party. Facing internal administration, the global and unstable cross-strait relations, he is more softer instead of traditional thinking, also has realible policy, and in order to show his leadership’s style individually.
Not like Jiang Zemin’s policy which used controversial and liberal to Taiwan, Hu Jintao adopts the conciliation policy to Taiwan, “more carrots, more sticks”, his attitude was especially more obvious. But his hard achievement takes a firm stand is in favor of vaguely, not only but to Taiwan soft achievement careful, also the prong is more widespread comprehensively. Taiwan gives permission to go to mainland China for investment, education, occupation and other data displays, it proves the results of Hu Jintao’s policy to Taiwan.
This statement would be concluded to mention about Hu Jintao’s four-sections of law to Taiwan, including economy, culture, politics, and the military, and to measure how much Taiwan is influenced by mainland China, and also to find the answers from the problems on these four strategies. To outlook the estimation from Hu Jintao’s conciliation policy to Taiwan, can see the internal changes for the mainland’s caress about Taiwan, it estimates the next leader of China, who affects political action on Taiwan, internal admistration in Taiwan should be faced more considered and careful. Finally, the research standard of this study, states the completion for political suggestions, to make sure a better relation on cross-straits and develop well for the country.

並列關鍵字

conciliation policy ； Diplomatic Truce ； ECFA ； Military Confidence-Building Measures ； Charm Offensive

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