以互賴理論解釋歐盟與俄羅斯天然氣貿易關係之變遷

A Study on the Changes of EU-Russia Gas Relationship with the Theory of Interdependence

薛蓉(Rong Shiue)

指導教授 ： 何思因

淡江大學/國際事務學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2021.00623

摘要

歐洲一直以來便是俄羅斯最重要的天然氣出口市場。由於俄羅斯的經濟結構相當倚賴能源出口，歐盟則是產能不足需要向外進口大量的天然氣，雙方因此形成了緊密的相互依賴關係。然而天然氣不僅是經濟商品，俄羅斯更將其作為政治槓桿持續性的影響中東歐國家。2009年俄烏天然氣爭議發生後，供應危機連帶衝擊了歐盟的整體經濟與能源安全。顯示出歐洲天然氣基礎設施發展不均和依靠單一供應商、單一運輸路線等嚴重問題。歐盟於是透過法規改革與基礎設施興建等措施減少內部的能源安全風險，並且逐步限制俄羅斯的壟斷性銷售行為。另一方面俄羅斯也在美國頁岩氣的強勢競爭與國內市場環境改變下，調整了對歐洲的天然氣出口策略。使得近十年內歐洲的天然氣市場產生了重大變化。本研究旨在透過互賴理論的架構比較在2009年前、後，歐俄雙方在天然氣貿易上的策略轉變及其影響。了解互賴關係如何改變市場結構，進而減少俄羅斯天然氣的政治性作用。

關鍵字

俄羅斯 ； 歐盟能源政策 ； 天然氣 ； 頁岩氣 ； 地緣政治

並列摘要

The EU and Russia are closely interdependent on natural gas trade. However, natural gas is not only an economic commodity in Russia, but also a political lever that continues to affect Central and Eastern European countries. Therefore, the EU has been committed to solving the problem of excessive dependence on Russian natural gas.
When the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute occurred in 2009, the crisis hit the EU's economy and energy security. It shows serious problems such as uneven development of European natural gas infrastructure and its dependence on a single supplier and single transportation route. After that, the EU adopted measures such as regulatory reforms and infrastructure construction to reduce internal energy security risks. At the same time, Russia chooses to adjust its sales strategy to Europe. Because Russia is facing competition from both US shale gas and domestic independent gas companies. In the past decade, these factors have caused major changes in the European natural gas market.
The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the changes in natural gas trade between Europe and Russia over the past 20 years. Understand how interdependence changes the market structure, thereby reducing Russia’s political power in Central and Eastern Europe.

並列關鍵字

Russia-EU relations ； energy policy ； natural gas ； shale gas ； geopolitics ； economic statecraft

參考文獻

書籍資料：

Baldwin, David, Economic Statecraft, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985).

Balmaceda, Margarita, Politics of Energy Dependency: Ukraine,

Belarus, and Lithuania between Domestic Oligarchs and Russian Pressure (London: University of Toronto Press, 2013).

Birchfield, Vicki, and Duffield, John, Toward a Common European Union Energy Policy (New York: Palgrave Macmillan USA, 2011).