後ECFA時期中國大陸對臺灣經貿環境影響探析

2008年臺灣經歷第二次政黨輪替，國民黨重新執政，兩岸關係出現逐漸改善。兩岸在「九二共識」的基礎上重啟海基會與海協會中斷10年的協商，並就經濟、文化等一系列重要問題達成多項協議。尤其是以2010年兩岸簽署「經濟合作架構協議」（ECFA）最具代表性，但其效應對促成兩岸政治整合的效果不如預期，甚至連後續協議都擱置未果。兩岸緊密的經貿關係源自脆弱的「九二共識」，再加上政治菁英無法就兩岸關係凝聚共識，臺灣民眾認同衰退與民意不支持，以及在利益無法擴及民眾的情形下，經貿的整合無法持續產生「外溢效果」，難以深化雙方進一步的合作。面對後ECFA時代中國大陸對臺經貿政策更具多元性，是否凸顯我對陸政策單調，面對貿易戰的風險與利益，政府該如何看待，臺商又能如何因應？實為政府迫切面臨的問題。

關鍵字

ECFA ；兩岸經貿；貿易戰；臺商

並列摘要

Taiwan experienced a second party alternation in 2008. The KMT's in office again, and the cross-strait relations gradually improved. The two sides restart the SEF and the ARATS consultations on the basis of the "1992 Consensus" which has in-terrupted for 10 years. It reached a number of agreements on important issues of eco-nomic and cultural. Especially in 2010, the most representative event is that the two sides signed the “Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement”. However, the effect upon Cross-Strait political integration didn’t set the world on fire, and it may adjourn the follow-up protocols. China’economy and trade policy to Taiwan becomes more diversification in the post ECFA period, will it highlight the contrast that our China policy is monotonous？ In the face of the risks and interests of trade wars, how should the government view it and how can Taiwanese businessman respond? Close Cross-Strait economic and trade relations is based from the fragile “1992 Consensus” but with the political elite, it is hard to reach a con-sensus based on Cross-Strait relations, Taiwan people agree with the recession, and the public doesn't support. Furthermore, the interests can't be extended to the people. Under the circumstances, economic and trade integration can't continue to produce “spillover effect” and it's difficult to Deepen further cooperation between the two sides. It’s an urgent problem for the government.