自動化協商策略效能之研究

The Study on the Efficiency of Automated Negotiation Strategies

陳俊衡(June-Heng Chen)

指導教授 ： 張昭憲

淡江大學/管理學院/資訊管理學系碩士班/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2007.00770

摘要

協商(Negotiation)是常見的商業行為，但過程有時曠日費時，並需耗費許多人力物力。以軟體代理人為基礎的自動化協商，可有效降低總體協商成本，並加快成交速度。然而，自動化協商的普及有賴相關基礎建設的成熟，也與代理人所使用的協商策略是否符合協商者之實際需求息息相關。為此，本研究針對常用的自動化協商策略進行分析，以大規模的模擬協商來統計各種策略的效能。我們針對雙邊雙議題協商，使用加總計分模型(Additive Scoring System)[12]與Faratin的策略模型[3]進行分析。模擬實驗結果顯示: 一開始堅持、最後大幅讓步，而且完全不考慮對手反應的時間相依戰略戰(Boulware)可獲得最高的平均效用，當使用多種戰略來組合成策略時，含有Boulware之策略仍佔有優勢。行為相依戰略雖然在平均效用上不如Boulware，但在效率與公平指標上，卻遠超過Boulware戰略，有利於與對手建立長遠關係。此外，我們也發現時間相依戰略所產生的協商結果相當不穩定，不適合穩健的協商者。除了上述分析之外，我們也發展了一套協商支援系統，支援項目包括喜好擷取、策略支援與結果落點分析，以利協商者實際驗證各種策略的有效性，並藉此訓練協商技巧。

關鍵字

協商策略與戰略 ； 自動化協商 ； 協商支援系統 ； 軟體代理人

並列摘要

Negotiation is a common phenomenon in commercial business, but it takes lots of resource and effort. Agent-based automated negotiations can reduce resource and total cost. However, automated negotiations are not widely adopted because it depends on popularization of IT infrastructure and strategies that agents use during negotiations still can’t satisfy people. So, in this thesis, we study on the efficiency of automated negotiation strategies with simulated negotiations scenery. We analyze two-party, two-issue negotiations with Additive Scoring System[12] and Fartin's strategies model[3]. The result of our simulation shows that single Boulware tactic will reach the highest utility value and the compound tactics with Boulware still have some advantages of utility. Although behavior-dependency tactics are not as good as Boulware tactic on average utility, it far exceeds Boulware tactic on Equality and Efficiency index that can build a good long-term relationship with opponents. In addition, we observe that time-dependency tactics will easily reach unpredictable results, so it is not suit for negotiators want to avoid risk. Besides, we also develop a Negotiation Support System to help negotiators capture their preference, build strategies, settlement analysis and training. Finally, we will try to evaluate effectiveness of strategies with this system.

並列關鍵字

Negotiation Strategies and Tactics ； Automated Negotiations ； Negotiation Support System ； Software Agent

參考文獻

[1]Barbuceanu, M. & Lo, W.-K. (2000). “A Multi-Attribute Utility Theoretic Negotiation Architecture for Electronic Commerce,” Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Autonomous Agents, 239-246.

[2]Blecherman, B. (1999). “Adopting Automated Negotiation,” Technology in Society 21, 167-174.

[3]Faratin, P., Sierra, C. & Jennings, N. R. (1998). “Negotiation Decision Functions for Autonomous Agents,” Robotics and Autonomous Systems 24, 159-182.

[4]Foroughi, A. (1997). “Minimizing negotiation process losses with computerized negotiation support systems,” The Journal of Applied Business Research, Vol. 14, No. 4, 15-26.

[6]Kersten, G. E. & Noronha, S. J. (1999). “WWW-Based Negotiation Support: Design ,Implementation and Use,” Decision Support Systems 25, 135-154.