近年南韓出口分析-以迴歸模型對出口影響因素分析

南韓是世界上排名靠前的主要出口國家，其經濟策略為製造出口導向，在一個資源不充裕的國家卻能夠成發展成近二十年來出口發展最迅速的國家之一，尤其在韓戰後面臨了經濟重建的階段，過程中也遭遇了數次金融危機和石油危機等足以影響全球經濟的海嘯，而南韓卻能夠迅速的從1997年的亞洲金融危機恢復。南韓的經濟成長是由出口帶動起來，不禁讓人好奇是什麼因素使南韓的出口成長有著這麼驚人的表現，因此在此篇論文中將篩選出七種不同的可能影響出口之因素，進而探討這些因素對南韓對主要國家出口的影響程度。此七種因素分別為：南韓從出口目標國家之進口額、出口目標國家之人均國民生產毛額、市場開放性、市場機會、對外直接投資、出口目標國之經濟整合程度、市場風險等。而結果發現出目標之人均國民生產毛額和出口目標國之經濟整合度對於出口並無明顯的相互關係，而其他如南韓從出口目標國家之進口額、市場開放性、市場機會、對外直接投資、市場風險等對於南韓之出口有著明顯及重要的影響。

關鍵字

南韓；迴歸分析；出口

並列摘要

South Korea’s economy has significantly grown for the last twenty years, and South Korea’s export performance has brought this growth. Since South Korea is an export-oriented country after a series of developing policy, it now becomes the top export country in the world. It is hard to imagine that South Korea had just ended the war five decades ago, and the state is lack of natural resources. However, the decisions the government had made leading South Korea a top wealth country. This essay is going to choose several factors that could be the reason affecting South Korea's export performance using a regression model to analyze. These factors including the import from the top 30 Korea's export country, GDP per capita of the top 30 Korea's export country, Market opportunity, market openness, outward financial direct investment, the level economic integration, and the policy and country's risk. As a result, the essay found that the import from the top 30 Korea's export country, market opportunity, market openness, and outward financial direct investment all are significant to affect South Korea. However, GDP per capita of the top 30 Korea's export country and the level economic integration have no considerable effect on South Korea's exports.