2018年高雄市長選舉之韓國瑜競選戰略：以孫子兵法行動戰略概念分析

本研究以2018年高雄市長選舉為研究主題，透過孫子兵法行動戰略為研究途徑，並且以文獻分析法作為研究方法。本文以行動戰略之概念，從蔡英文於2016年上任後的兩岸情勢作為戰略環境分析的起點，繼以思想、目標、計劃、行動等概念之串聯，以概述韓國瑜競選高雄市長的整體作為，最後以《孫子兵法》裡的四個行動指標，以分析韓國瑜戰略行動。本研究首先進行兩岸情勢及我國情勢的外部戰略環境分析，探討在蔡英文於2016上任後，我國的政治與對外政策作為，以及中國大陸的回應，可以得知兩岸關係衰退，我國經濟因此而受到衝擊；再者，檢視我國對內的政策施行及改革，不僅支持率低落，甚至造成人民怨聲四起，經濟是其中最大的問題。其次，回到高雄本身，根據近兩次投票選舉數據顯示，高雄大部分地區是民進黨鐵票區，而且高雄含有三大地方政治派系，韓國瑜該如何動員地方派系，以及將民進黨支持者，轉化為國民黨支持者，成為一大難題。另外，根據高雄市產經情勢分析裡多項數據顯示，可以得知高雄經濟受到外部環境之影響；而我國的經濟建設是否得宜，仍然需要重新考量。根據以上內外部環境的探討，經過整體評估之後，可以得知經濟議題成為此場選戰的核心，韓國瑜利用口號及政見，試圖以經濟改變高雄未來，成為其競選的目標。韓國瑜提出的10項政見，成為其選戰中藉由口號進而擬定的具體作為，而口號的發想及政見的擬定，亦成為韓國瑜的計劃做為。最後，韓國瑜的戰略行動，將藉由《孫子兵法》裡的攻守、奇正、虛實、迂直等四個概念，以分析韓國瑜的選舉議題、選舉宣傳、選舉行動、選舉造勢等四個方面。在選舉議題方面，韓國瑜藉由口號表明，高雄需要改變，攻擊民進黨長期執政下的不佳；不過，韓國瑜同時也迴避民進黨多方攻擊國民黨，無論是曾經吳敦義曾經的治理，亦或是馬英九任內的舉措。在選舉行動方面，韓國瑜藉由口號及政見的雙線進攻模式，成功提升自我的曝光率及知名度。在選舉行動方面，韓國瑜藉由空戰揭開選戰序幕，並且藉由空戰轉換為空陸一體戰，最後全然轉化為陸戰的行動方針，成功將網路聲量轉化為實際選票。在選舉造勢方面，韓國瑜藉由韓流的力量，迂迴全台各地，使得各地都有韓粉，並且成功幫助國民黨拉抬聲勢，最後則祭出三山造勢，最終勝選。

關鍵字

2018年九合一選舉；高雄市；韓國瑜；孫子兵法；行動戰略

並列摘要

The topic of this research is based on the Election of Kaohsiung Mayor 2018, along with Sun Tzu’s Strategy of War action as the researching approach, and apply literature analysis as the researching method. Within the concept Strategy of Action, the analyzation of strategic environmental, which started from the cross-strait situation after Miss President Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016, followed by the cascade of several concepts, such as thoughts, goals, plans, actions to analyze the overall actions of Han Kuo-yu, served as Mayor of Kaohsiung City on December 25, 2018. Finally, assesses the actions of Han Kuo-yu by the four action indicators in Sun Tzu’s Art of War. First, this research analyzes the situation between cross-strait and external strategic environmental, discuss the politics and foreign policy of Taiwan after Miss President Tsai Ing-wen’s taking office in 2016. As the response from China, we can tell that the decline on cross-strait relations, as well as the aspect on economy in Taiwan. Furthermore, by reviewing domestic policy implementation and reforms in Taiwan, we find that the biggest problem which caused to lower support rate and the raise of complaints is Economy. Second, according to the data of the last elections of Kaohsiung, residents voted for the DPP mostly. The most difficult issue of Han Kuo-yu was how should he mobilize three local political factions and turn them into supports of KMP. In addition, Kaohsiung’s economy situation is affected by the number of data on industrial and economic aspect, which also can be reconsidered whether Taiwan’s economic constructions are appropriate or not. Baes on the overall assessment, we find out that Han Kuo-yu, with slogans and political opinions, targeted on changing the future of Kaohsiung. He drafted 10 political opinions as his slogans during the election campaign, and those proposed by slogan and the formulation of political views later also became part of his plans too. Finally, analyzing the strategic actions of Han Kuo-yu under the four concepts in Sun Tzu’s Art of War action: Offensive, defensive, eccentricity reality and indirectness, this research is categorized into four aspect of election: issue, propaganda, actions and momentum. With regard to election issue, he expressed through the slogans that the needed change of Kaohsiung, also orally attacked the poor long-term governance of DPP, however, he avoided the multiple orally attacked about the governance terms of Wu Dun-yi or Ma Ying-jeou from DPP. In terms of election propaganda, he succeeded in increasing his exposure and popularity through the use of slogans and opinions under the two-line attack mode. In terms of election actions, by opening the prelude of the election through the air combat issue, also transferring it into air-land combat, transforming it into a land combat action plan, he successfully transmitted the power of online voice into actual voting figure. In the terms of election momentum, he used the power of his fans all over the Taiwan to gain his popularity, also his party, eventually he won the election with series momentum.