韓流為什麼消退？ 探討 2018 與 2020 年高雄市的中央與地方選舉

Why did " Han Wave " Fade Away? A Study of the 2018 Local Election and 2020 Presidential Election in Kaohsiung City.

黃芝庭(Chih-Ting Huang)

指導教授 ： 鄧志松

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2022年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202202827

摘要

韓國瑜於2018年高雄市長選舉擊敗民進黨籍候選人陳其邁，除了中斷民進黨於高雄的長期執政，更成為繼吳敦義以來，民選高雄市長中唯二的國民黨籍市長，使高雄颳起一陣「韓流」旋風。韓國瑜上任後不久，便宣布角逐2020年總統大選，此舉不僅引發支持者錯愕，連帶遭人質疑其過去所宣稱「做好做滿」高雄市長一職之承諾。韓國瑜2018年於高雄市長選舉中獲得89萬2545票，然而2020年總統大選的高雄得票數卻僅剩61萬896票。由於兩次選舉時間相差不到一年半，故本論文主旨為探討當初支持韓國瑜的選民為什麼不再支持他？
本研究運用深度訪談之方法，透過訪問15位「2018年投給韓國瑜，2020年非投韓國瑜」之高雄市民，將訪談內容文字化為逐字稿，再經由持續地比較分析提出高雄市民投票行為轉變機制之解釋架構。本研究發現受訪者最初對韓國瑜懷有「過度期待」，隨著韓國瑜成功當選高雄市長後，便不自覺對其施政進行「放大檢視」，期望韓國瑜得以逐步實現選前之承諾，然而當韓國瑜無法也不願履行競選政見時，便對韓國瑜產生高度之「期望落差」，進而以「讓韓國瑜成為落選總統」作為投票目的。除此之外，本研究也發現部分受訪者於2018年投給韓國瑜後，進而開始主動關心政治事務，反思當初之投票抉擇。再者，亦有多位受訪者提及「政治歷練」成為判斷韓國瑜是否適任總統之關鍵因素。特別的是，韓國瑜參選市長時鮮明的人格特質「草根、庶民、非菁英」，並不符合部分受訪者對於總統一職之想像，反而成為他追求總統之路的絆腳石。

關鍵字

韓國瑜 ； 韓流 ； 選舉研究 ； 回溯性投票理論 ； 2018年高雄市長選舉 ； 2020年總統大選

並列摘要

Han Kuo-Yu defeated DPP candidate Chen Chi-Mai in the 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral election. In addition to interrupting the DPP's long-term rule in Kaohsiung, he became the only KMT mayor in Kaohsiung popularly elected mayor since Wu Den-Yih, raising the "Han Wave" whirlwind. Shortly after taking office, Han Kuo-Yu announced his candidacy for the 2020 presidential election, which not only caused consternation among supporters, but also called into question his previous promise to "do superior work" as mayor of Kaohsiung. Han Kuo-Yu won 892,545 votes in the 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral election, but only 610,896 votes remain in Kaohsiung in the 2020 presidential election. Since the time difference between the two elections is less than 18 months, this thesis explores why the voters who supported Han no longer voted him.
This thesis uses in-depth interviews to interview 15 Kaohsiung citizens who "voted for Han Kuo-Yu in 2018, but not in 2020". The interview content is translated into verbatim transcripts, and then through continuous comparative analysis, proposed an explanatory framework for the voting behavior change mechanism of Kaohsiung citizens. This thesis found that the respondents initially had "excessive expectations" for Han Kuo-Yu. After Han Kuo-Yu was successfully elected mayor of Kaohsiung, they unconsciously "zoomed in" on his governance, hoping that Han Kuo-Yu would gradually fulfill his pre-election promises. However, Han Kuo-Yu was unable and unwilling to fulfill his promises. The respondents had a high "expectation gap" for Han Kuo-Yu and then used "Let Han Kuo-Yu become the unelected president" as the voting purpose. In addition, this thesis also found that after voting for Han Kuo-Yu in 2018, some respondents began to take the initiative to care about political affairs and reflect on their original voting choices. Furthermore, many respondents also mentioned that "political experience" has become a critical factor in judging whether Han Kuo-Yu is suitable for the presidency. In particular, Han Kuo-Yu's distinctive personality traits of "grassroots, subaltern, and non-elite" when he ran for the mayoral election did not conform to some respondents' imagination of the presidency, became a stumbling block in his pursuit of the presidency.

並列關鍵字

Han Kuo-Yu ； Han Wave ； Election Study ； Retrospective Voting Theory ； 2018 Kaohsiung Mayoral Election ； 2020 Presidential Election

參考文獻

參考文獻

壹、中文

Abby Huang（2018）。〈韓國瑜的「不准政治抗議」改口了：市長再怎麼厲害，也不能超越《憲法》〉。關鍵評論網：https://www.thenewslens.com/article/10724 3。2022/5/2檢索。

中央選舉委員會（2014）。〈103年直轄市長選舉 候選人得票數〉。https://db.cec.gov.tw/histQuery.jsp?voteCode=20141101B1B1 qryType=ctks。2021/5/28檢索。

中央選舉委員會（2018）。〈107年直轄市長、縣(市)長選舉候選人競選經費最高金額〉。https://web.cec.gov.tw/central/cms/107news/27495。2022/8/21檢索。