美國對北韓外交政策之研究(2009-2020)

北韓發展核武的問題，主要的關係國有美國、中國、南韓、日本及俄羅斯，另外在聯合國的安理會則可依聯合國的規章有權利採取制裁，在二戰結束後，美國即經常利用與東北亞各國的雙邊關係作為發展東北亞安全政策的基礎，美國藉由與日本、韓國間的軍事同盟得以維持在兩國駐軍作為對區域發揮影響力的重心。美國從歐巴馬政府(2009-2017)採取以靜制動的「戰略耐心」(strategic patience)政策，迄2017年1月入主白宮的川普總統提出揚言不惜使用武力解決的「極限壓力」(maximum pressure) 政策，兩任政府對北韓政策呈現截然不同的交往方式，更尤其美國總統川普上任後，與北韓領導人金正恩直接對話，也使得朝鮮半島局勢降溫。本論文研究將有系統的運用各種文獻資料，以及嘗試透過事件資料及藉由1971年埃里森( Graham T. Allison)所著的「決策的本質 (Essence of Decision)」裡的三種外交決策模式「理性行為模式-組織行為模式-政府政治模式」，來探討美國政府外交的決策模式，藉此瞭解美國外交決策的機制、過程與影響因素的分析。

關鍵字

美國外交、戰略耐心、極限施壓、決策理論

並列摘要

North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons is mainly related to the United States, China, South Korea, Japan, and Russia. In addition, the UN Security Council has the right to impose sanctions in accordance with UN regulations. After World War II, the United States often uses As a basis for developing Northeast Asian security policies, bilateral relations can maintain the garrison in the two countries as a center of influence for the region through military alliances with Japan and South Korea. The United States adopted the "strategic patience" policy of static braking from the Obama administration (2009-2017). As of January 2017, President Trump, who entered the White House, proposed the "extreme pressure" that threatened to use force. (maximum pressure) policy, the two governments have shown very different ways of interacting with North Korea’s policies. More specifically, after US President Trump took office, direct dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has also cooled the situation on the Korean Peninsula. This thesis research will systematically use various documents and materials, and try to use the event data and three diplomatic decision-making models in "Essence of Decision" by Graham T. Allison in 1971."Rational Behavior Model-Organizational Behavior Model-Government Political Model", to explore the decision-making model of the US government's diplomacy, in order to understand the analysis of the mechanism, process and influencing factors of US diplomatic decision-making.