影響臺灣選民投票行為之產業因素分析：以2008、2012以及2016總統選舉為例

An Analysis of the Industry Factors Affecting the Voting Behavior of Taiwan’s Voters: The Presidential Elections in 2008. 2012 and 2016.

張元祥(Chang Yuan-Hsiang)

指導教授 ： 蔡佳泓

國立政治大學/社會科學學院/政治學系/博士(2022年)

https://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202201489

摘要

影響選民投票行為的因素，一直是政治行為領域研究中的重要課題。除了選民教育程度、政黨支持、年齡、統獨立場，以及對於經濟的回顧與展望等個體影響變數外，近年關心的焦點擴大到選民所處的系絡，主要的原因是「選民並非離群獨居」，會受到其所處環境的影響。本研究即是希望透過分析我國2008、2012以及2016總統選舉，來瞭解選民所處的產業環境，對於選民的投票行為是否會產生影響。
本研究認為，臺灣是高度依賴進出口貿易的國家，經濟與產業的興衰，也直接影響選民的工作機會與未來發展，另一方面，產業發展有區域的群聚效應，而形成系絡，當國家重大經貿政策發生轉變，也會造成產業群聚的「受益者」與「受害者」，進而影響選民的投票行為。本研究分析選民所處的工業與服務業環境，檢視選民所處的產業環境對於投票行為之影響。
研究分析結果顯示，當選民所處的產業環境，三角貿易活動越興盛，選民傾向支持反對加速兩岸經貿整合的候選人，服務業活動越興盛，選民傾向投給支持兩岸發展交流的候選人。但是，當兩岸加速交流與整合影響選民對於未來的預期時，選民的態度與投票行為也可能會改變。
整體而言，選民所處產業特性會影響選民的投票行為，在本研究的實證分析中獲得支持。而利用選民所處的環境來進行選民投票行為的分析研究，必能使投票行為的研究面向更為充實。

關鍵字

投票行為 ； 系絡 ； 產業環境 ； 工業 ； 服務業 ； 三角貿易

並列摘要

The factors that affect voters' voting behavior has always been a major topic in political science. In addition to the individual influencing variables such as education level, political party support, age, unification field, and economic review and outlook, the focus of attention in recent years has expanded to the context of voters. The main reason is that voters are not isolated and will be affected by the environment, in which they are located, will be affected by the environment in which it is located. The purpose of this study is to analyze the 2008, 2012 and 2016 presidential elections in Taiwan to understand whether the industrial environment of voters has an impact on voters' voting behavior.
The author argues that Taiwan is a country that is highly dependent on import and export trade. The rise and fall of the economy and industry also directly affects the job opportunities and future development of voters. Changes in major national economic and trade policies will also create "beneficiaries" and "victims" of industrial clusters, which in turn affect voters' voting behavior. This study analyzes the industrial and service environment of voters, and examines the impact of voters' industrial environment on voting behavior.
This works shows that when voters are in an industrial environment, the more prosperous triangular trade is, the more likely they are to support candidates who oppose accelerating cross-strait economic and trade integration, and the more prosperous the service industry is, the more likely they are to vote for candidates who support cross-strait development and exchanges. However, when the accelerated exchanges and integration across the Taiwan Strait affect voters' expectations for the future, voters' attitudes and voting behavior may also change.
Overall, the characteristics of the industry in which voters are located will affect the voting behavior of voters, which is supported in the empirical analysis of this study. Introducing automation of analyzing environment of voters and voting behavior can definitely enrich the research of voting behavior more substantial.

並列關鍵字

Voting behavior ； Context ； Industrial environment ； Industry ； Service industry ； Triangular trade

參考文獻

中文部分：

于宗先，1995，〈台灣工業空洞化之驗證〉，《自由中國之工業》，84(6):1-11。

中華經濟研究院（連文榮），2012，〈提高陸客來台對消費與就業的帶動效果〉，《國內外及中國大陸經濟研究及策略規劃》報告。台北：財團法人中華經濟研究院。

王振寰，1993，《資本，勞工，與國家機器》，台北：唐山出版社，1-53。

王淑美、溫蓓章，2010，〈開放陸客來臺旅遊經濟效益分析〉，《願景基金會季刊》，11(3):133-176。