冷戰後中共南海政策研究：權力移轉論的分析

南海基於自然資源和地緣位置的戰略性，自20世紀中葉成為中國與東南亞各國的爭奪地與紛爭所在。中共南海政策亦隨著綜合國力的上升相應地調整。特別是在2009年以後，中國在南海的強勢外交作風不但促使美國等域外大國關切南海問題，也引發是否中國開始背離韜光養晦外交方針的疑慮。本文藉由權力轉移論中的權力和意圖因素，說明國際體系間權力移轉自中國的事實，造成中國在行動自由度的提升以及守成強權對新興強權崛起的擔憂。在國家意圖探方面，由於國力的提升導致其經濟和生存空間的擴張，使得中國的國家發展戰略從「陸地利益」轉向強調「海洋權益」；海權意識由「近海防禦」邁入「近海防禦與遠洋護衛結合」；生存空間的需求也自「維護生存空間」朝向「擴展生存空間轉變」。基此，中共發展出一套多元維權手段更好地來攫取南海地區的戰略成果，並為「維權」和「維穩」間提供了平衡。最後，從中共維權手段獲取的一系列不可逆轉的成果觀察，今日南海的現狀已經不同於冷戰後的南海現狀，中國對於區域的管控能力明顯優於其他南海聲索國，就此而言，中共對區域秩序的修正意圖可見一斑。

關鍵字

權力轉移；中國崛起；南海爭端；修正主義；東亞秩序

並列摘要

Due to its natural resources and strategic geographical location, the South China Sea (SCS) has been a battleground and point of contention between China and Southeast Asian countries since the mid-20th century. As China has grown in strength it has also adjusted its SCS policy accordingly. In the 1980s Deng Xiaoping proposed his “28-character guidepost” advising that China should adopt a diplomatic strategy of keeping a low profile and biding its time. With regard to SCS issues, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has long followed its guiding policy of shelving disputes and seeking common development, calling on relevant parties to deal with disputes in a cooperative manner to reduce the possibility of conflict. In this way it corresponds with the strategy of keeping a low profile and maintaining a stable and peaceful international environment in order to further China's economic development goals. In recent years however, a series of SCS incidents has aroused concern that China is moving away from its previously defensive and restrained policy to one of assertiveness and action. In addition, China has begun large-scale land reclamation and construction of military facilities in and around the Spratly/Nansha Islands, which indicates that China has already shifted from prioritizing stability to prioritizing stability while protecting their alleged rights. This article attempts to explore the reality of China's rise under the US-built international order in the post-Cold War era from the perspective of power transition. It also seeks to ascertain the causes behind the changes to the CCP’s SCS policy as the Chinese state has grown in power. Lastly, it is hoped that by examining China’s recent assertive measures and active construction in the SCS and the corresponding influence on regional order, we can better understand China’s revised intentions with regard to the regional status quo.