日本對中國大陸的避險戰略：以日本加強印度「特別戰略全球夥伴關係」為例(2012-2018)

現今國際情勢逐漸出現權力移轉的態勢，在中美權力消長之下，傳統現實主義的扈從或制衡兩種行為模式已不足以解讀國家面對威脅採取的政策，開始出現以混合多項政策手段來達到沖銷風險、最大化自身利益與保有決策彈性的第三條中間路線：「避險戰略」(hedging strategy)。本文以避險戰略作為研究途徑，探討安倍政權執政下的日本如何對中國大陸採行避險戰略，在避險光譜中如何在制衡與交往兩個極端之間擺盪，隨著中方對日展現的強硬姿態與否，使日本對中避險呈現強度不同的變化。筆者以制衡面及交往面並陳論述，第二次執政的安倍對中採行「競爭交往型硬避險」，對內進行國防改革、鬆綁自衛權、制定《國家安全保障戰略》等提升自身能力；對外則強化日美同盟並拓展與第三國間的合作關係。與此同時，也尋求在中國大陸一帶一路框架下針對第三方市場的合作機會，展現出對中加強交往的力道。儘管如此，安倍對中仍保持謹慎的態度。在地緣政治及經濟層面選擇提升和印度的戰略夥伴關係，為日本對中硬避險的外部制衡之一環。藉由安倍印太戰略和莫迪東進政策的加乘效果，共同促進亞非印太地區的連結性，以制衡中國大陸在該區域的影響力。

關鍵字

日本對中政策；日印關係；印太；戰略夥伴關係；避險；硬避險

並列摘要

During a power transition with the rise of China and the relative decline of U.S. global leadership, the dualism of balancing and bandwagoning is not enough to fully explain the variety of state strategies. Therefore, hedge, a mixed use of multiple strategies, shows as another third alternative that seeking to offset long-term risks, maximize nation interest and flexibility. This paper examines how Japan’s policy toward China has been adjusting over time, especially focusing on Abe Shinzo’s second term as Japanese Prime Minister. Through a lens of hedging strategy, the author elaborates how Abe administration pursues “competitive engagement with a hard hedge” (also refer as ‘hard hedging’) toward China from both perspectives of engagement and balancing. With geopolitical interests shared between Japan and India, Abe has chosen to elevate the relations with India to a “Special Strategic and Global Partnership” in 2014 as an external balancing against China. In a purpose of promoting a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” checking on China power projection in the region, Abe and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi cooperate on the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) with an intention to counter the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).