工業用地地價對於製造業產值影響之探討

本文藉由研究經濟活動指標(工業用地土地價格、製造業產值、消費者物價指數、製造業採購經理人指數)之間的動態交互關係，以研究工業用地土地價格的變動是如何實際地影響製造業產值。實證結果顯示，在台灣，工業用地土地價格負向影響製造業產值，影響效果至少遞延半年；反之，製造業產值變化並不會導致工業用地土地價格波動。而消費者物價指數、製造業採購經理人指數能部分解釋製造業產值，且影響方向為正；然此二者均無法解釋工業用地土地價格之變動。

關鍵字

向量自我迴歸模型；時間序列資料；工業用地土地價格；製造業產值

並列摘要

This paper studies the dynamic interactions among indicators such as Industrial land price, output of manufactory, consumer price index, and manufacturing purchasing managers index. Aim to analysis that how the movement of industrial land price affects the output of manufactory. The empirical evidence suggests that Industrial land price certainly affects the output of manufactory in a negative way. On the contrary, the movement of industrial land price won’t affect the performance of the output of the manufacturing. The changes of the consumer price index and manufacturing purchasing managers index positively explain only part of the output of the manufacturing movement. But these two indicators can neither explain the movement of industrial land price.