影響不動產法拍屋拍定價格因素之研究 -以臺北市為例

法拍屋交易是不動產市場交易的一部分，按投資者的持有動機與目的可以分類成「住宅」與「辦公室」兩種類型。因此本文分別探討：影響「住宅用」與「辦公室用」法拍屋價格之關鍵總體因素。故本研究蒐集2010年1月至2019年12月期間的每月資料，相關資料有：臺北市住宅用和辦公室用法拍屋價格資料、臺北市房價指數、臺北市人口移動率、臺北市商家單位實際營業額、臺北市物價指數、M2貨幣供給成長率、景氣指數、以及五大銀行房貸利率等變數；並且使用向量自我迴歸模型，進行實證分析。研究結果發現，比較住宅用和辦公室用法拍屋價格波動，兩者的影響因素有明顯的不同。臺北市住宅用法拍屋價格會受到前期的臺北市房價指數、M2貨幣供給成長率、臺北市物價指數以及五大銀行房貸利率等波動的影響；而臺北市住宅用法拍價格出現波動，會牽動來期的臺北市房價指數。而在臺北市辦公室用法拍屋價格部分，該變數只會受到前期的臺北市商家單位實際營業額以及五大銀行房貸利率波動之影響；另一方面，當臺北市辦公室用法拍價格出現波動，會影響下期的臺北市商家單位實際營業額。

關鍵字

法拍屋市場；房價指數；時間序列；向量自我迴歸模型

並列摘要

Foreclosure auctions are part of the real estate market, which can be categorized into two groups, "residential" and "office", according to the investors’ holding motivation and purposes. However, my main focus in this article will be the overall key factors affecting the auction prices of “residential use” and “office use” foreclosure properties. This research collects monthly data from January 2010 to December 2019. The relevant data includes: pricing on residential and office foreclosure auctions in Taipei, housing price index in Taipei, population move in/out rate of Taipei, actual revenue of individual business in Taipei, M2 money supply growth rate, Consumer Price Index of Taipei, mortgage rates of five major banks and other variables; using vector autoregressive model to conduct positive analysis. The result of the study shows the price fluctuations between residential and office foreclosure auctions, the factors affecting their prices are significantly different. The price of residential foreclosure auctions in Taipei City is impacted by the house price index of the previous period, M2 money supply growth rate, consumer price index of Taipei, and the mortgage rates of five major banks. Fluctuations in the residential foreclosure auction price in Taipei will affect the future of Housing Price Index of Taipei. As for office foreclosure in Taipei, the auction prices will only be impacted by the actual revenue of individual business in the previous period and the fluctuation of the five major banks' mortgage rates. On the other hand, when the foreclosure auction price of office property in Taipei fluctuates, it will also impact the actual revenue of business in the future.