總體景氣波動對房價之不對稱影響

本研究希望可以了解總體景氣波動及其他總體經濟因素對房價造成的顯著程度及影響方向，並進一步探討在總體景氣繁榮及衰退下，房價受到的影響是否具有不對稱性。本研究利用2005年至2017年共156筆月資料，以信義房價指數作為被解釋變數，失業率、經濟成長率、放款利率、貨幣供給額年增率、消費者物價指數年增率、台灣加權股價指數作為解釋變數，採用複迴歸模型以最小平方法(OLS)進行實證分析，實證結果主要結論如下：(1)總體景氣循環期間，失業率無法解釋房價的變動，經濟成長率與房價呈現順循環現象，當景氣繁榮時房價上漲，景氣衰退時房價下跌，其餘解釋變數中，利率及股價顯著影響台北市房屋價格，通貨膨脹率顯著性較低，而貨幣供給額年增率則完全不顯著。(2)總體景氣繁榮期間，不論是失業率及經濟成長率皆無法顯著影響房價。(3)總體景氣衰退期間，失業率及經濟成長率皆顯著影響房價，且影響方向為順循環，表示總體景氣衰退會影響房價下跌。(4)對照總體景氣繁榮及衰退期間，以經濟成長率所建立之模型對於房價的影響程度有不對稱性發生，且景氣衰退期間對房價的負向影響效果大於景氣繁榮期間對房價的正向影響效果。

關鍵字

總體經濟；房價；不對稱影響

並列摘要

This study aims to understand the extent to which the macroeconomic fluctuations and other macroeconomic factors contribute to housing prices, and further explore whether there is asymmetry in the impact of housing prices under the overall prosperity and recession. This study collected a total of 156 monthly data from January 2005 to December 2017. The Xinyi Housing Price Index was used as response variable. The unemployment rate, economic growth rate, lending rate, annual growth rate of money supply, annual increase rate of consumer price index, and Taiwan's weighted stock price index were used as explanatory variables. A complex regression model and the ordinary least squares method (OLS) were employed for empirical analysis. The main conclusions of the empirical results are as follows: (1) During the overall cycle, the unemployment rate could not explain the change in housing prices, and the economic growth rate and housing prices showed a procyclical phenomenon: the housing prices rose when the economy boomed; the prices fell as the economy deteriorated. In the remaining explanatory variables, interest rates and stock prices significantly affected housing prices in Taipei; the inflation rate was less significant, and the annual growth rate of money supply was not significant at all. (2) During the overall prosperity period, neither the unemployment rate nor the economic growth rate could significantly affect housing prices. (3) During the general economic downturn, both the unemployment rate and economic growth rate significantly affected housing prices, and the direction of impact was a procyclical cycle, indicating that the overall economic downturn would affect the decline in housing prices. (4) Compared with the prosperity period and the recession period, the model established by the economic growth rate had an asymmetry in the impact on housing prices, and the negative effect on the housing price during the economic downturn was greater than the positive effect on the house price during the boom period.