應用遺傳規劃法於空氣污染物涵容能力之分析

The Analysis of Atmospheric Carrying Capacity by Genetic Programming Method

劉佳鑫(Chia-Hsin Liu)

指導教授 ： 曾昭衡

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/環境規劃與管理研究所/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2007.00252

摘要

本研究彙整北部各縣市1998年到2004年空氣品質及污染物排放量，利用回饋推估法(Rollback Method)與遺傳規劃法(Genetic Programming)，計算大氣總涵容能力，並應用單位面積涵容能力概念，以淡水河為例，計算淡水河流域之大氣涵容能力。本研究建立之涵容能力估算方法及程序，可作為未來實施空氣總量管制及環境影響評估之參考。
研究之污染物為 PM10、SO2、 NO2、CO、NMHC等先以回饋推估法求得淡水河流域空氣污染物平均剩餘涵容能力推估結果如下: PM10為19,628 公噸/年(剩餘27%)，SO2為281,977 公噸/年(剩餘84.2%)，NO2為88,649 公噸/年(剩餘53.1%)，NMHC為275,368 公噸/年(剩餘56.8%)，CO為1,540,804 公噸/年(剩餘90.8%)。再利用遺傳規劃法搭配四種氣象情境，求得淡水河流域各污染物在不同氣候條件之下剩餘涵容能力: PM10低溫度低風速總涵容能力為57,863公噸/年 (剩餘11%)，高溫度高風速下剩餘涵容能力185,741 公噸/年(剩餘78%)；SO2其低溫度低風速下剩餘涵容能力為200,291 公噸/年(剩餘84%)，高溫度高風速下剩餘涵容能力464,189公噸/年(剩餘92%)；NO2低溫度低風速剩餘涵容能力為-7,924公噸/年(剩餘-11%)、高溫度高風速剩餘涵容能力120,387 公噸/年(剩餘74%)，NMHC得知其低溫度低風速剩餘涵容能力為113,360 公噸/年(剩餘35%)，高溫度高風速剩餘涵容能力1231,252 公噸/年(剩餘86%)，在低風速低溫度氣候條件下，PM10、SO2、NO2、NMHC之剩餘涵容能力為最小，反之在高風速高溫度氣候條件下，剩餘涵容能力為最大。由回饋推估法及遺傳規劃法皆顯示PM10、NO2剩餘涵容能力較少，應為優先管制目標，而NMHC次之。

關鍵字

遺傳規劃法 ； 回饋推估法 ； 空氣總量管制 ； 涵容能力 ； 環境影響評估

並列摘要

This study has collected on air quality and pollutant emissions quantities of cities of north Taiwan from 1998 to 2004, two models, Rollback method and Genetic programming method, are used to calculate the capacities of the air pollution, applying the idea of the unit area in Tanshui River to calculate the carrying capacities of the air pollution in Tanshui River. In addition, the methods and process used for calculation of carrying capacity reported in this study should be useful for total quantity control of air pollution emission and system for environmental control assessment.
At First, the study used Rollback method to estimate the carrying capacity of five types of air pollution in Tanshui River, and each average carrying capacity of PM10,SO2,NO2,CO and NMHC were 20,711 ton/yr(remaining 28%), 237,248 ton/yr(remaining 85%), 90,693 ton/yr(remaining 53%), 288,277 ton/yr(remaining 57%)and1,575,063 ton/yr(remaining 89%).Then, this study used Genetic programming method in four kinds of meteoric situation to calculate remaining carrying capacity of the air pollutions in Tanshui River. The remaining carrying capacity of the PM10 was 57,863 ton/year in the low temperature and low wind velocity, and 185,741 ton/year in the high temperature and highwind velocity. The remaining carrying capacity of the SO2 was 200,291 ton/year in the low temperature and low wind velocity, and 464,189 ton/year in the high temperature and highwind velocity. The remaining carrying capacity of the NO2 was-7,924 ton/year in the low temperature and low wind velocity, and 120,387 ton/year in the high temperature and highwind velocity. The remaining carrying capacity of the NMHC was 113,360 ton/year in the low temperature and low wind velocity, and 1231,252 ton/year in the high temperature and highwind velocity. Moreover, the least average carrying capacity of PM10, SO2, NO2, and NMHC in the low temperature and low wind velocity. However average carrying capacity of PM10, SO2, NO2, and NMHC have the maximum in the high temperature and high wind velocity. From Rollback method and Genetic programming method, PM10 and NO2 have less carrying capacity, therefore, PM10 and NO2 have the higher priority to be considered as control targeta than NMHC.

並列關鍵字

Genetic programming method, ； Rollback method ； The Total Quantity Control of Air Pollution Emission, ； Air Quantity ； Environmental Impact Assessment

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