電力產業財務預測模式之研究

A Study of Electricity Industry Financial Forecast

廖英淑(Ying-Shu Liao)

指導教授 ： 盧以詮

元智大學/資訊學院/資訊管理學系/碩士(2002年)

摘要

一般中、大型公司通常會作財務預測以提供管理者攸關的資訊，如：未來公司的營運狀況與經營效率，以因應潛在的風險及不確定的因素，若是資本支出較為龐大且規畫興建期間較久的公司，如公用事業，規畫期間可能必須長達二十年，其財務預測的即時性與正確性便顯得重要了，此外，電力產業目前正面臨政府開放電業自由化之衝擊，現階段急需擬訂種種的因應策略，並仰賴正確的決策，以謀求企業永續生存，故乃著手研究電力產業現行財務規劃模式，期藉相關文獻的探討，對各個模組進行邏輯與合理性分析，並檢討目前財務預測與財務報表作業之正確與否，以釐清合理化財務預測與財務報表作業之架構。

關鍵字

財務預測 ； 電力產業

並列摘要

In Generally, many larger companies provide their managers some useful information by making financial forecast, for example their working situation and operating performance in the future. They can use this information to control potential risks and uncertain factors. If the organization, like the utility industries, have higher capital expenditure and a longer period for planning, then the immediateness and correctness of the financial forecast is more important. Besides, liberalization and privatization made a great impact on electricity industry. They must make policies urgently to deal with this situation and to achieve lasting survival. So we start to research financial planning model of electricity industry, and analyze the logicality and formulas of every module by probing into related literatures. We hope we can rationalize the framework of the financial forecast and financial statement.

並列關鍵字

Financial Forecast ； Electricity Industry

參考文獻

[5]Carleton, W.T. “An Analytical Model for Long-Range Financial Planning”, Journal of Finance, May 1970, 291-315.

[6]Darrough, M.N., and Russell, T. “A Positive Model of Earnings Forecasts: Top Down versus Bottom Up,” Journal of Business, 75, 2002, 127-152.

[7]Easterwood, J.C., and Nutt, S.N. “Inefficiency in Analyst’ Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?”, Journal of Finance, 54, 1999, 1777-1797.

[8]Jensen, M. C., and W. H. Meckling, “Theory of firm: managerial Behavior, agency costs and ownership structure”, Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 1976, 305-360.

[9]Kim, E. H. “A mean-variance theory of optimal capital structure corporate debt capacity”, Journal of Finance, 33, 1978, 45-46.