行政區域再生能源政策推動效益分析-以澎湖低碳島規劃太陽能應用導入為例

The Benefit Evaluation of Renewable Energy Policy Development for Administrative Region - A Case Study of Solar Energy Implementation in Penghu Low Carbon Island

張宥勝(Chang, Yu Sheng)

指導教授 ： 張瑞芬

國立清華大學/工學院/工業工程與工程管理學系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

我國能源供應結構屬於高度碳排放性質，國際減碳趨勢於近年來迅速崛起，乘著此浪潮我國政府陸續提出相關配套法規如：永續能源政策綱領、國家節能減碳總計畫等巨大政策，更將2010年訂為節能減碳年，可預見未來我國將會有更多再生能源與環境政策產生，相關配套措施推動勢必日益增加。有鑑於此，本研究針對行政區域再生能源政策提出一效益分析評估方法，行政區域導入再生能源政策將使得整個區域環境系統有變動影響，因此將該區域碳排放量納入考量；另一方面，政策成本亦為一大考量因素。因此，本研究採用系統動態學方法將再生能源政策建模，著手行政區域再生能源政策推動效益分析，期望透過此方法建置再生能源政策系統動態模型，並模擬出政策結果，以達到決策支援之功效。在案例研究部份，本研究選定建置澎湖低碳島專案計畫內的再生能源政策進行分析，由於近年來綠能產業於國內迅速崛起，太陽能產業亦為其中之一，該產業與TFT-LCD及半導體產業製程相近，目前為我國重點產業，因此本研究選定導入太陽能應用政策作為分析目標。建構再生能源政策太陽能應用系統動態模型，進行建置澎湖低碳島專案計畫中導入太陽能應用政策之效益分析，案例分四個情境，探討不同的政策情境下所造成的碳排放減量以及導入成本之影響，模擬結果顯示出逐年導入太陽能應用政策效果較佳，期望本研究所提出之方法可提供給相關單位決策者做為日後推動低碳島或低碳城市之政策評估參考依據。

關鍵字

減碳效益分析 ； 太陽能應用 ； 系統動態學 ； 決策支援

並列摘要

Because the carbon reduction trends in the world and the energy supply structure is still in high degrees of carbon emission in Taiwan, the government proposed many regulations successively, such as “Frameworks of Sustainable Energy Policy - an Energy-Saving and Carbon-Reduction Action Plan’’ and “Master Plan of Energy Conservation and Carbon Mitigation”. Therefore, the carbon reduction issue in Taiwan must be promoted in the future. The above-mentioned description reveals that it needs to seek the renewable energy to reduce the high CO2 emissions situation in Taiwan. The related policies promote the development of solar energy industrial sector. The objective of this thesis is to develop a benefit evaluation for carbon reduction and cost of renewable energy policy for administrative region. This thesis adopts a system dynamics (SD) approach to constructing the renewable energy policy SD model to help decision makers to evaluate the renewable energy policy benefit. It analyzes the implemented costs required and related effects of the carbon emission in administrative region. In case implementation, this thesis simulates the solar energy applications in Penghu Low Carbon Island. The simulation of four policy options has been introduced in the case implementation. The result shows that the option of long-term adoption of solar energy applications is the best policy choice, because its carbon reduction benefit is higher than the other policy options. The approach and results of this research can be used for a reference to construct other administrative regions.

並列關鍵字

Carbon Reduction Benefit Analysis ； Solar Energy Applications ； System Dynamics Approach ； Decision Support

參考文獻

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