再生能源發展對2025年非核家園目標之政策影響研究

Impact of Development of Renewable Energy on Nuclear-Free Homeland Target in Taiwan

莊翔仁(Hsiang-Jen Chuang)

指導教授 ： 余朝恩

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/公共政策與管理碩士在職專班/碩士(2021年)

摘要

核能發電一直以來在全世界都被廣泛使用，主要因為技術相對成熟且無溫室氣體的排放，一度被認為是可以取代一般化石燃料發電的救星。
自從2011年3月11日福島核災以來，世界各國無不重新審視一直以來被認為相對穩動供電的核能所隱藏的突發風險。無論是政治因素或是人民安全的訴求，皆因此事件開始產生了變化。許多人認為核能除了突發狀況造成大規模的災難之外，核能發電所產生的核廢料更是一道無解的課題。2016年政府發表了2025年非核家園的目標，期許再生能源能夠取代核能，設定太陽能裝置容量20GW與離岸風力發電5.27GW兩大目標達到一定程度的去核化。
本研究蒐集自2015年9月至2020年12月的核能尖峰發電、再生能源尖峰發電、每日最高氣溫、淨尖峰供電量資料以外，並加入了包括執政黨輪替、815大停電、Covid-19發生、台商回流政策、中美貿易戰等總體經濟變數做為控制，使研究更佳完善。首先利用線性回歸方式，透過中介變數驗證再生能源與核能的因果關係。藉由上述結果探討我們所重視的被解釋變數 (核能發電) 並加入再生能源尖峰發電、每日最高氣溫、淨尖峰供電量及其他總體經濟變數做為控制變數，估計線性回歸，藉此了解再生能源是否對核能具有排斥的效果，且尋找是否有其他變數可以同時降低核能的發電量。最後透過結構迴歸方程式釐清最高溫度對核能發電的間接效果、直接效果及總體效果。
實證結果得知，再生能源發電與核能呈現顯著且負向關係，證明控制其他變數時，再生能源確實有機會替代核能。且淨尖峰供電能力與溫度也與核能呈現正向關係，且效果大於再生能源的排斥效果。藉由研究結果，可以提供政府機關在「非核家園」遠大目標下制訂配套政策的參考。

關鍵字

核能發電 ； 再生能源 ； 淨尖峰供電量 ； 最高氣溫

並列摘要

Ever since the Fukushima nuclear disaster on March 11st, 2011, every country globally is taking a different view of the hidden ticking bombs posed by nuclear power, long regarded as a stable power source, followed by fierce political or general public backlashes. Many came to believe that, apart from the large-scale disaster scenarios nuclear poses, the safe disposal of the produced nuclear waster from nuclear powerplant is so far without an acceptable solution in sight. As the Taiwanese Government announced its energy policy for a 2025 nuclear-free Taiwan, it aimed at using renewable energy to replace nuclear while striving for the two main goals of establishing 20GW and 5.27GW power generation capacities in solar power and offshore wind power, respectively.
From the peak-hour power generation of nuclear and renewable energy, daily maximum temperature, net peak-hour power supply data from September 2015 to December 2020 collected by this study, as well as having added the overall economic factors such as the transition of power between political parties, 815 power outage, COVID-19 pandemic, the escapade of Taiwanese business from China to Taiwan, the U.S.-China Trade War, as the control variables. First, by using the linear regression method to study the mediator of nuclear, we are studying with peak-hour renewable energy generation, daily maximum temperature, net peak-hour power supply, and other macroeconomics variables as the controlled variable for an estimated linear regression to understand whether renewable energy would pose a repulsive effect for nuclear while searching for other variables that can lower the need for nuclear supply. Lastly, the structural equation modeling seeks to direct, indirect, and total effect of the maximum temperature on nuclear.
From the empirical result, renewable energy and nuclear bear an obvious yet adverse relationship, indicating that by controlling the other variables, renewable energy can replace nuclear. Also, the net peak-hour power supply capacity and temperature indicate a positive correlation with nuclear, with an effect more prominent than the repulsive effect of renewable energy. The study result could serve as a reference for the “Nuclear-Free” energy policy for government authority.

並列關鍵字

nuclear ； renewable energy ； peak-hour power ； maximum temperature

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