台灣人口粗出生率自1984年跌破20%大關,出生人口數371,008人後,便開始逐年下降。近幾年人口減少情形尤以2010年最為嚴重,人口粗出生率僅7.21%,出生人口數僅166,886人。人口下降的主要原因在於近幾年的工作機會相對減少、失業率逐月攀高、薪資水平逐年降低,加上物價指數上升與通貨膨脹等因素,致使年輕人普遍感受極大壓力,因此生育率無法提升,反而逐年下降。生育率下降所形成的少子化現象已然對現行的所有教育單位造成莫大的衝擊,加上近年來推行十二年國民教育,勢必對教育界掀起軒然大波。教育是國家富強的根基,教育基石不穩,將會對國家未來產生相當大的隱憂。因此引發本研究探討在十二年國教下,影響準國中畢業生選擇高中職關鍵因素的動機。 本研究透過文獻探討,蒐集了國內外學者對準國中畢業生選擇高中職的關鍵因素之文獻,經過整合、歸納出五項評估構面及十八項評估準則,藉此建立研究雛型架構。在從事招生工作十年以上的五位專家協助下,應用德爾菲法取得專家們的共識,最後建構出具有五項構面及十七項準則的正式研究架構,作為後續研究的基礎。 本研究採取以決策實驗室分析法為基礎的網路分析程序法來釐清變數之間的相互關係,找出影響準國中畢業生選擇高中職的關鍵因素,並描繪出關鍵因素間的因果關係圖。研究結果發現,影響準國中畢業生選擇高中職的關鍵因素包含了學校聲譽、就近入學、學雜費高低、校園安全性、親師友評價、各項獎學金補助及提供、學校規模等共七項,此七項因素為影響學生選擇高中職校之主因。由決策實驗室分析法所產生的因果圖,顯示因應少子化的未來,高中職學校可從學校聲譽、親師友評價、學雜費高低、就近入學等四項關鍵因素加強,藉以強化學校競爭力。本研究針對桃園市五所具代表性的學校進行重要性及績效值的分析,研究結果顯示穩定成長的學校在績效值成果表現較佳,然而逐漸顯現招生危機的學校在績效值成果的表現相對較差。
The crude birth rate of Taiwan has decreased every year since it dropped below 20% in 1984, in which year the population of Taiwan was 371,008. The year of 2010 witnessed the biggest decrease in the total population, with a crude birth rate of 7.21% and a population of 166,886. The main causes for a decreasing population lie in the facts that in recent years there have been fewer job opportunities, a growing unemployment rate, and a descending salary level. Moreover, the rising price index and inflation have brought young people much pressure. Therefore, the fertility rate has decreased annually. Sub-replacement fertility, which is caused by a decreasing fertility rate, has struck a serious blow at all of the educational authorities. The twelve-year compulsory education is sure to make a bigger impact in the education field. Education is the foundation for a strong nation. Without a solid educational foundation, the nation will face a worrisome future. Hence, the author was induced to conduct this study to explore the motives and key factors for a junior high school graduate-to-be to choose a senior or vocational senior high school in the 12-year compulsory education system. The key factors for domestic and overseas junior high school graduates-to-be to choose a senior or vocational senior high school were collected through literature review. Five assessment dimensions and eighteen assessment criteria were summarized to develop a prototype framework. With the assistance of five experts who have worked on recruiting for over ten years, and with the use of Delphi method to reach an agreement among the five experts, the author eventually developed an official research framework of five dimensions and seventeen criteria as the foundation of the following research. This study used DEMATEL and ANP to analyze the relationships between variables in order to find out the key factors that influence junior high school graduates-to-be to choose a senior or vocational senior high school, and the cause and effect diagram of the key factors was produced. The results show that the key factors of junior high school graduates-to-be to choose a senior or vocational senior high include school reputation, distance between home and school, tuition, campus safety, relatives’, teachers’ and friends’ opinions of the school, scholarships and grants, and school size. The above-mentioned seven factors are the main criteria for junior high graduates to choose a senior high. The cause and effect diagram produced from DEMATEL show that in order to deal with sub-replacement fertility and increase their competitive edge, senior and vocational senior high schools are suggested to make improvements in terms of their reputation, people’s opinions of them, tuition, and campus location. This study selected five representative schools in Taoyuan City for importance and performance analysis. The findings show that stably developing schools perform better, while schools showing recruitment problems perform worse.