以共識度為導向的計畫評選模式建立之研究

An Approach to Build Up Models for Project Evaluation using Consensus Orientation Mechanism

黃薏蒨(YI-CHIEN HUANG)

指導教授 ： 顧志遠

中原大學/商學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200700423

摘要

現今變動快速的社會，多元化是當代社會的重要特徵之一，每個人的價值觀不同，人與人之間的「共識」範圍和程度大為縮減，使得人們發現彼此間溝通和容忍的重要性，如何建立共識，成為重要課題。
施政計畫是政府機關業務執行的依據，政府施政規劃中，預算編列的最高原則為「有規劃才有預算，有預算必有計畫」，計畫係政府非常重要的施政手段。在社會資源與政府財政有限的前提下，為滿足計畫方案的可行性及考量以合理的方式來分配資源，計畫方案的優先順序評估與考量便成為必備要項。
政府因民眾而存在，民眾對政府的績效應有知的權力，而一個組織的發展，端視於有形的外部趨動力(目標)及無形的內部趨動力(共識)共同達成其績效。然而公部門存在的任務目的與民間企業不同，民間企業以追求利潤為目的，公部門則以追求公共利益為導向，不以利潤為重，在其外部趨動力不明顯之下如何達成高績效，唯有更強化其內部趨動力，不論是同一部門或跨部門，都必須要先建立一定程度的共識，當一個組織的意見或決定若是經由團體參與共同運作的結果，會得到成員的樂意支持，計畫才能推動執行。
是以，如何為政府組織建構一套能排出凝聚組織共識的「計畫執行優先順序」模式，正是本論文的研究重點。藉由肯德爾和諧係數為基礎，建構一套共識度的分群衡量機制，以德爾菲問卷每次產生的計畫排序，來計算所有參與評價者在不同評選指標項下之共識度。在共識度不高時，如何利用分群的方式，反覆藉著幾次問卷的收發、整理、分析、重排的模式來引導參與評價者漸次達到共識，並加權計算各指標項下的排序，進而排出計畫的優先順序，以作為政府組織投入其有限資源能力之參考。

關鍵字

層級分析法 ； 計畫 ； 共識 ； 德爾菲法 ； 肯德爾和諧係數 ； 優先順序

並列摘要

The society varies very rapidly nowadays. Diversification becomes one of the important characteristics in contemporary society. Owing to different personal values, the range and degree of consensus among people have being decreased greatly, which makes people to recognize the importance of communication and toleration, and therefore, how to build up the consensus becomes an important issue for today.
Government executes business according to the administrative programs. Among government administrative programs, the ultimate principle to make the budget plan is “where is the program, where is the budget; where is the budget, where is the plan”. Planning is very crucial means for government administration. Under the premise of limited social resource and insufficient government financial support, in order to meet the availability of each programs and shares the resources evenly and reasonably, the priority of all programs has to be considered and evaluated first.
The purpose of government existing is because of populace, thus people have the rights to know the performance of government. The development of an organization relies on visibly external driving force (target) and invisibly internal driving force (consensus) to reach the performance together. However, the purpose and task of government departments differ from private enterprises, the former is for public interest oriented, but the latter is for pursuing personal profit. Therefore, how to make government departments have high performance with an unapparent driving force? The most efficient method is to strengthen the internal driving force, no matter at same or different departments; it should build up certain degree of consensus, so that the program will be able to proceed smoothly and effectively under the mutual recognition and team members’ fully supporting.
Thus, the purpose of this study is to set up a model of “the priority of programs execution”, government can use this model to consolidate the organization consensus. Based on Kendall’s coefficient of concordance, this study builds up a system to measure the degree of consensus by dividing different groups, sorting the results of each program created by Delphi’s questionnaire, and calculating the participants’ consensus degree with different evaluation index. When the consensus is low, by means of dividing different groups, with Delphi’s questionnaires to set up a model, that is, repeatedly the steps of filling up, collecting, analyzing, re-sorting the result. With this model to guide the participants to reach consensus from time to time, and calculate the sequences of each index by weighted, finally to sort out a priority list, which can be a reference for government organization to cast limited resources capability into each programs.

並列關鍵字

Priority ； Delphi Method ； Project ； Consensus ； Analytic Hierarchy Process ； Kendall’s Coefficient of Concordance

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