台灣發電系統可靠度之建模與評估

Modeling and Evaluation on Generation System Reliability of Taiwan Modeling and Evaluation on Generation System Reliability of Taiwan

林家豪(Jia-Hao Lin)

指導教授 ： 陳士麟

中原大學/工學院/電機工程研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201100483

摘要

發電系統可靠度分析旨在探討發電系統是否有足夠的機組容量以供應負載並符合發電系統可靠度的要求。分析過程中須考量發電機組的維修排程、隨機故障與負載預測的不確定特性。本研究旨在建立模型與程式系統，將機組的故障容量與負載表示成為兩類相互獨立的隨機變數，以摺積運算方式進行模擬。
本模擬係以民國98年作為基準年並參考台電9806電源開發方案進行模擬，模擬結果包括：民國104~114年期間各年的發電系統缺電機率與預期缺電量。水力、風力機組係依據歷史的容量因數實績估計發電量，而核、火力係採用Block Shift法，以上述摺積運算的方式模擬機組的隨機故障特性。
本研究所建立之發電系統可靠度分析模型亦可針對各時點之負載進行敏感度分析，以求得負載變化對系統可靠度及發電成本之影響。據之，本文提出民國104年台灣負載變化對發電系統可靠度及發電成本之影響分析。

關鍵字

區塊平移法 ； 敏感度分析 ； 發電系統運轉模擬 ； 可靠度衡量指標 ； 缺電成本 ； 燃料成本 ； 預期缺電量 ； 缺電機率

並列摘要

The analysis of generation system reliability aims to ensure that the generation system capacity is sufficient to meet load demand and can fulfill the system reliability requirement. In the evaluation process, the maintenance, the generator forced outage rate, and the random fluctuation of load must be considered. The purpose of the thesis is to build the evaluation model and simulation software where the outage capacity and load are simulated as two types of mutually independent random variables so to implement convolution for the simulation.
This simulation uses year 2009 as base year and refers to the “Taipower 9806 Long-Term Power Development Plan”. The simulation results include: the annual loss of load probability (LOLP) and expected unserved energy(EUE) all from 2015 to 2025. The hydropower and wind generators are simulated their history generation data; by the method simulated of Block Shift, by referring to nuclear and thermal generating units are simulated through convolution as started above.
The simulation model built in this study is also used for the sensitivity analysis of load to evaluate the impact of load change on the reliability and the production cost of generation system for each hour in this paper. A case study on Taiwan Power System’s 2015 network is presented in this thesis.

並列關鍵字

Block Shift ； Loss of Load Probability(LOLP) ； Outage Cost ； Sensitivity Analysis ； Fuel Cost(FC) ； Reliability Index ； Power System Operation Simulation ； Expected Unserved Energy(EUE)

參考文獻

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