論台灣能源政策中發電配比之合理性與可行性

近年來因為氣候變遷惡化之故，各國在2015年巴黎會議達成共識，涵概全球排碳量97%的187國已遞交國家自定預期貢獻 (Intended National Determined Contribution，INDC ) 並承諾在2030年大幅減少CO2排放量；台灣雖然非締約國，但也對國際承諾減量，並於溫室氣體減量與管理法中明訂：2050年溫室氣體排放量降為2005年碳排量50%以下，並依此遠程目標制訂2025年碳排量降至2005年碳排量90%以下的中程目標。由於台灣能源部門碳排量佔全國總量約70%，且燃氣(煤、油)發電、核能及再生能源所組成之發電配比，其佔比消長之間對排碳量影響最顯著，因此經濟部109年度施政計劃將推動能源轉型，以減煤、增氣、展綠、非核為方向，並設訂於2025年發電達到50%(天然氣)、30%(燃煤)及20%(再生能源)之能源配比目標。本研究針對全國各電廠、發電機組及數量龐大的風力、水力及太陽光電，依其預定投產、除役期程安排生產計劃，以程式模擬2025年的發電、用電及調度，並依『減碳符合INDC、液化天然氣用量低於供氣上限、排碳係數未達開罰標準』三要件，篩選出可能性較高之9個發電組合方案，結果顯示非核的方案，都面臨減碳不足及需要抑制用電成長。所以基於減碳的現實考量，確實須借助零排碳的核電使台灣履行減碳承諾。另外，經模擬2025年大量太陽光電、風力發電併網之北中南輸電狀況，顯示需擴充輸電容量以避免棄電，另外火力電廠需配合間歇性、無法調度的再生能源，在天候變化時需急遽升降載，將挑戰電力系統穩定性。由於減碳、滿足供電等任務，全球皆然，因此本研究針對日本、南韓、新加坡，英國、德國、法國及美國等7國的發電配比，以及減、排碳量的變化進行分析，透過各國近年來的能源政策及減碳對策中發現，以南韓與台灣的條件較為相近，且能源配比政策值得台灣借鏡。

關鍵字

能源政策；發電配比；國家自定預期貢獻；減碳

並列摘要

Due to the aggravation of climate change, the consensus of Paris Agreement in 2015 was reached where 187 countries contributing 97% in total of global greenhouse gas emissions submitted INDC (Intended National Determined Contribution), and committed to vast reduction of emission level by 2030. Taiwan is not a contracting party of the Conference of the Paris or the Paris Agreement, but has been presenting the affirmation to such international collaboration. The Taiwanese government passed the bill of “Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Act,” which stipulates the projected greenhouse gas emission level in 2050 must accomplish beneath 50% of that of 2005. Therefore, along with the long-term objective, that the greenhouse gas emission level in 2025 achieves beneath 90% of that of 2005 has been a mid-term target. In Taiwan, electricity generation accounts for 70% of greenhouse gas emissions, which was impacted by the source shares coming from fossil fuel (natural gas, coal, petroleum), nuclear energy, and renewable energy. The Ministry of Economic Affairs has been promoting energy transformation since 2020, by reducing Coal-fired power generation, expanding Gas power generation, encouraging power generation, and abandoning nuclear power generation, to divide the energy source for electricity generation in 2025 into three categories: 50% for natural gas, 30% for coal, and 20% for renewable energy. My research simulates electricity generation, consumption, and distribution in 2025 in Taiwan, and presents 9 rationally feasible proposals by looking into the current operational planning of units of coal-fired power plants, hydroelectric power plants, wind turbines, and solar panels, and by satisfying 3 key conditions including INDC-required greenhouse gas emission reduction, the maximum supply of LNG, and acceptable emission factors. The study turns out excluding nuclear energy options that we will encounter the constraint of electricity generation or decline to meet greenhouse gas emission target. It interprets we do need nuclear energy which produces 0 carbon emission to fulfill the commitment of greenhouse gas emission reduction. Meanwhile the simulation model for 2025 also suggests the enhancement of electric power transmission capability across the island be needed, and highlights the potential challenges of uneasy coordination between weather-dependent renewable energy and coal-fired power plants to stable electric power distribution. It is unanimously essential to reduce carbon emission in the global village. The study also references the energy source shares, greenhouse gas emission variations, energy policies, and emission reduction strategies among Japan, South Korea, Singapore, UK, Germany, France and USA, to support the integrity of the simulation model, and the research singles out the South Korea’s ambience is similar to Taiwan’s in terms of the challenges and energy policies. Hope the work is able to deliver substantially optimal options for our community.