溫室氣體減量與所得分配之一般均衡分析

為因應全球氣候變遷，溫室氣體減量早已成為各國政府密切關注的議題。為評估我國實施溫室氣體減量所可能帶來的衝擊效果，本研究建構一涵蓋詳細所得分配機制的可計算一般均衡 (CGE) 模型，並模擬 5 種減量情境對我國總體經濟及所得分配的影響。模型依據主計總處「家庭收支調查報告」之資料，將家計部門區分為十個所得階層，並整理出各所得階層之收入來源，以及各所得階層消費之支出項目。本研究模擬CO2減量 25 百萬公噸，使用的經濟工具為碳稅，並將稅收用於增加政府支出、抵減所得稅、抵減較低階層所得稅、及移轉至家計部門等。模擬結果顯示，各情境碳稅稅收不同，此反映情境間能源產品之消費組合並不相同；另外，若將稅收搭配減稅或總額移轉等相關配套措施，有助於減緩減量對經濟造成的負面衝擊，其中又以一定比例增加政府支出對實質GDP成長最有幫助。不過，透過碳稅減量的後果將會導致物價上漲，而當稅收用於增加可支配所得導致需求線右移，物價上漲幅度會更大。由於考量政府稅收部分會移轉至家計單位，因此本研究溫室氣體減量模擬結果不同於過去大多文獻，在所得分配方面呈現累進的情形；此外，除了額外增加政府支出之情境外，其餘情境也皆呈現累進性，尤以移轉至家計部門最能改善所得分配。政策涵義方面，若以改善所得分配為主，本研究建議應增加稅收移轉至家計部門的部分，減少家計部門能源產品價格上漲的財務負擔，惟若是在減量時仍要盡量維持經濟成長，則建議稅收應增加用於政府支出，以擴大內需振興經濟。

關鍵字

社會會計矩陣；可計算一般均衡模型；溫室氣體減量；所得分配

並列摘要

In response to global climate change, greenhouse gas reduction is an issue that has attracted close attention from governments around the world. To evaluate the effects of greenhouse gas reduction in Taiwan, this study aims to construct a computable general equilibrium model that covers detailed income distribution mechanism and estimates the impact of five types of reduction situations on general economy and income distribution in Taiwan. A survey on household income and expenditure from the directorate general of the budget, accounting, and statistics stated that the household accounting sector is divided into 10 sections, and income sources and expenditure items of all sections are sorted out. This study simulates 25 million metric tons reduced from CO2 emissions with the carbon tax as an economic tool. Tax revenue increases government spending, enables income tax deduction for lower-income sectors, and facilitates revenue transfer to the household sector. Based on the idea that part of governmental tax revenue is transferred to the household accounting section, the simulation result of greenhouse gas reduction in this study differs from the findings reported in most previous literature. The income distribution shows a progressive situation. In the aspect of policy implications, if the improvement of income distribution is emphasized, this paper suggests increasing the part of tax revenue that is transferred to the household section, and the financial burden from the price increase of energy products must be reduced. If the economic growth is maintained in the reduction, more tax revenue should be used in government spending to expand domestic demand and revitalize the economy.

並列關鍵字

Social Accounting Matrix ； Computable General Equilibrium model ； Greenhouse Gas Mitigation ； Income Distribution

參考文獻

Allan, G., Lecca, P., McGregor, P., & Swales, K. (2014). The economic and environmental impact of a carbon tax for Scotland: a computable general equilibrium analysis. Ecological Economics, 100, 40-50.

Beck, M., Rivers, N., Wigle, R., & Yonezawa, H. (2015). Carbon tax and revenue recycling: Impacts on households in British Columbia. Resource and Energy Economics, 41, 40-69.

Boyce, J. K. (1994). Inequality as a cause of environmental degradation. Ecological Economics, 11(3), 169-178.

Callan, T., Lyons, S., Scott, S., Tol, R. S., & Verde, S. (2009). The distributional implications of a carbon tax in Ireland. Energy Policy, 37(2), 407-412.

Fullerton, D., & Heutel, G. (2007). The general equilibrium incidence of environmental taxes. Journal of Public Economics, 91(3), 571-591.

國際替代計量

溫室氣體減量與所得分配之一般均衡分析

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