WTO對越南經濟的衝擊

Impact of WTO on Vietnam's Economy

黎文凰(Hoang Le)

指導教授 ： 廖先昱

中原大學/商學院/國際商學碩士學位學程/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201700721

摘要

經濟學家普遍認為自由貿易政策對一個國家的福利是有推波助瀾的功效。然而，加入WTO後，是否就真的能促進經濟成長，仍有待商榷。Rose (2004a) 的實證結果發現，那些加入關貿總協定和世界貿易組織的國家，在貿易模式上並沒有和非會員國有多大的差別。此後，許多研究便致力於找出WTO對經濟的影響。不過，很少有研究探討WTO對於新興國家的經濟衝擊。因此，這篇論文以越南為例，希望能量化分析WTO對於新興國家所造成的影響。而實證的結果顯示，越南加入WTO後對其出口和GDP成長率並沒有顯著的幫助。

關鍵字

WTO ； 國內生產毛額 ； 單根檢定 ； 差分後定態 ； 最小平方法 ； 虛擬變數

並列摘要

A conventional wisdom said that free trade is beneficial for a country’s welfare. However, whether the WTO can motivate economic growth of WTO membership in reality still opens the floor for looking into. Rose (2004a) found striking empirical evidence that countries joining the GATT/WTO do not have significantly different trade patterns from nonmembers. Since then, many studies tried to uncover the impact of WTO on economy. However, few studies explored the quantitative impact of WTO on emerging countries. Therefore, this thesis aims to take Vietnam as an example to investigate the impact of WTO quantitatively on the emerging country. The empirical results show that Vietnam’s accession to the WTO does not have significant impact on Vietnam’s growth rate of GDP and export

並列關鍵字

WTO ； GDP ； Unit root test ； Difference stationary ； Ordinary least squares ； Dummy variable

參考文獻

Baier, S. L., & Bergstrand, J. H. (2007). Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?. Journal of international Economics, 71(1), 72-95.

Chow, G. C. (2003). Impact of joining the WTO on China's economic, legal and political institutions. Pacific Economic Review, 8(2), 105-115.

Dutt, P., Mihov, I., & Van Zandt, T. (2013). The Effect of WTO on the Extensive and the Intensive Margins of Trade. Journal of international Economics, 91(2), 204-219.

Rena, R. (2012). Impact of WTO policies on developing countries: issues and perspectives. In Transnational corporation review (Canada), (pp. 4(3):77-88).

Rose, A. K. (2004a). Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?. American Economic Review, 98-114.