銷售價格組合與產能預留門檻對訂單達交影響之分析

To Analyze the Impact of Selling Price Combination and Capacity Reservation Threshold on the Order Fulfillment

賴思萍(Sih-Ping Lai)

指導教授 ： 宮大川

中原大學/電機資訊學院/工業與系統工程研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201600783

摘要

工具機為工業生產的基礎設備，且已走向國際化，但由於工具機價格較高，顧客在下訂單前需審慎評估與多次洽談，使得洽談的時間從數日到數週不等。在此特性下，潛在性訂單和訂單達交之議題更受到業者重視，隨著訂單變動，也會改變最適合之生產模式，因而促成不同生產環境模式的研究與應用。本研究以在臺灣工具機產業上有重要地位的個案公司為例，為了能夠因應潛在性訂單與訂單的達交率，並有效地調整機台生產彈性，此個案公司訂單/組裝混合式生產(make to stock/configuration to order, MTS/CTO)環境模式，MTS為一般模組組成之機台，CTO為一般模組和關鍵模組組成之機台。
在MTS/CTO的生產環境下，王聖傑的論文結合了庫存策略和派工法則等情境，提出門檻值之概念來控制訂單數量，以最大利潤前提下研擬各情境之最適門檻值。本研究透過銷售歷史資料發現價格彈性會影響銷售量，因此將價格視為因素之一，繼而延伸王聖傑的論文，並建立銷售價格組合，在產能預留門檻與預留策略、存貨策略、洽談機率情境下，以利潤為目標，運用模擬工具求得利潤最大化的銷售價格組合和預留門檻。
本研究將王聖傑論文的銷售價格定為銷售價格組合1，而門檻有控制訂單數量的作用與了解排擠效應出現時間，在門檻較小時，因訂單確定成交機率不穩定，造成確定訂單量少，隨著門檻越大，訂單確定成交機率也越高，使得確定訂單量逐漸增加。首先探討預留策略，最大利潤為模組預留策略下的價格組合16與門檻4.3，優於王聖傑論文之最佳解(模組預留策略、價格組合1、門檻值7)，此分析可知加入多組銷售價格組合後的利潤比價格組合1好，表示加入銷售價格組合確實會增加利潤。第二為存貨策略，沿用王聖傑論文之最佳庫存策略(5,10)，但因為加入銷售價格組合因素，為確認最佳存貨策略是否有改變，因此比對存貨策略(1,1)、(5,10)、(7,14)、(10,20)後，發現當門檻5.6時，價格組合24在存貨策略(7,14)得到最佳結果且最佳預留策略為模組預留，從結果得知合適的存貨策略可使利潤更進一步增加。最後探討洽談機率，從結果發現銷售人員談判能力可改變顧客購買意願。綜合本研究分析可知，加入銷售價格組合因素確實能影響銷售量，進而增加利潤，此研究結果，可供企業作為策略安排參考。

關鍵字

潛在性訂單、銷售價格組合、預留門檻、產能規劃、模擬

並列摘要

Machine tools are the basis equipment of the industrial production and already have moved toward internationally. However, before placing orders, customers have to assess critically and negotiate many times due to high prices of the machine tools. Hence, the confirmed order will take time for several days or weeks. In this feature, the issues of potential orders and order fulfillment have attracted attention from vendors, and the optimal modes of the production have improved by industries.
In order to adapt the potential orders and the order fulfillment by improve the production modes effectively, our research is to illustrate by the case of company, which has an important position of machine tool industry in Taiwan. Applies the make to stock/configuration to order (MTS/CTO) hybrid production planning model to handle potential order rates, order fulfillment rates, and adapt flexible in machine's production environment. Moreover, this MTS/CTO hybrid model can be divided into two modules; one is MTS machine mode for general modules, the other is CTO machine mode for general and key modules.
Thanks for Mr. Sheng-Jie Wang, Mr. Wang proposed the concept of threshold value to control volume of orders, capacity reservation policy for achieving the profit maximization by combining the inventory strategies and dispatching rules in MTS/CTO hybrid production model. Through the sales history data, our research found that price elasticity will affect sales. That is, the price will be regarded as one of the important factors in sales. The objectives of this thesis are to extend Mr. Wang’s research, and focus on reservation capacity threshold, reservation policies, inventory policies and negotiations probability to construct a selling price combination. Based on the profit maximum, the simulation tools will be adopted to find the adaptation of the selling price combination and reservation threshold among the selective groups.
In this research, the selling price combination 1 is setting as selling price according to Wang’s research. The threshold has the ability of controlling the quality of order and finding out of the supplant effect, while the threshold is small, the unstable probability of turnover order brings the less of firm order, and the threshold is large, the higher probability of turnover order brings the increase of firm order. First of all, the study considers reservation strategy, when setting the maximum profit is equal to the selling price combination 16 and threshold 4.3 then comparing the simulation results with Wang’s supposition (the selling price combination 1 and threshold 7). The simulation results show the increase of the selling price combination will raise the profit. Second, the study considers the inventory policy, and extends Wang’s optimal research (5, 10). Due to the factor of the addition of selling price combination, we have to confirm the optimal inventory policy is changed or not. After comparing with inventory policy (1, 1), (5, 10), (7, 14) and (10, 20), we find out the threshold 5.6 and the selling price combination 24 (under inventory policy (7, 14)) will obtain the optimal inventory policy.
Above all, as can be seen, the profit could be increased as the proper inventory policy is used. Moreover, we discuss the negotiation probability. The results show that the sales staff’s negotiation capacity will change the willingness of customers ‘consumption. In summary, the addition of selling price combination is indeed a important factor to affect the selling quantity to make more profit and the results in this study is full of potential for business.

並列關鍵字

Potential Orders, Selling Price Combination, Reserved Threshold, Capacity Planning, Simulation.

參考文獻

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