中國南海填海造島行動之研究–以薄富爾「行動戰略」理論分析

南海因能源爭奪、領土主權、海洋劃界、漁業糾紛、填海造陸、國際仲裁問題及位居戰略要道使得南海爭端複雜化及國際化。尤其中國的填海造島行動，使得南海爭端白熱化，一時無法化解。本文之研究目的將以薄富爾行動戰略理論來探討南海爭端中中國填海造島行動，中國與美國使用軍事、外交及經濟以及其他手段的互動過程，是否符合薄富爾行動戰略理論之基本主張。研究發現，美中均採總體戰略間接模式。說明了美、中之間在南海的互動是符合薄富爾行動戰略理論的基本論述，依目前的態勢，南海日益軍事化，增加擦槍走火的機會，爭端問題尚未解決，不排除有發生局部衝突的可能性。

關鍵字

總體戰略；間接戰略；行動戰略

並列摘要

The South China Sea has complicated and internationalized disputes due to energy contention, territorial sovereignty, maritime delimitation, fishery disputes, land reclamation, international arbitration issues, and its position on strategic points. In particular, China's reclamation and island-building operations have intensified the South China Sea dispute and cannot be resolved for a while. The research purpose of this article is to use the theory of operations strategy of Beaufre to explore whether China's reclamation of seas and islands in the South China Sea disputes, and whether the interaction process between China and the United States using military, diplomatic, economic and other means complies with the basic propositions of the theory of operations strategy of André Beaufre. The study found that both the United States and China adopt the overall strategic indirect model. It shows that the interaction between the United States and China in the South China Sea is in line with the basic discourse of Beaufreﾟs strategic theory of operations. According to the current situation, the South China Sea is becoming increasingly militarized, increasing the possibility of conflict.