中國石油戰略的發展與挑戰-以能源安全的角度分析

摘要能源為國家經濟發展的重要支柱，從20世紀以降，「石油」在各類能源中重要性日顯。中國自改革開放以來，石油需求不斷增加，1993年成為石油淨進口國、2003年取代日本成為僅次於美國的第二大石油進口國，已是全球石油貿易增加的主要來源之一。為了確保石油供應安全，中國進行「多元化」佈局來確保自身石油供應的穩定，包括提升能源利用效率、建立戰略石油儲備、進行「走出去」戰略積極參與國外石油開發…等，同時在石油運輸上也採取興建陸上石油通道、成立遠洋艦隊、建立多邊對話機制各項措施來保障安全；此外，也積極投入替代能源的研發，並與世界各國進行合作。隨著多項行動的推展，「石油安全」已獲得相當的提升，現階段欲全面封鎖中國的石油進口已難以達成，但仍可能因多種原因(如：恐怖主義、海道遭到封鎖)面臨短期間石油進口量大減的險峻情事。研究發現： 1.中國崛起對全球能源市場產生重大影響，除了推高油價外，北京推行的石油戰略，漠視人權的作法屢受抨擊，同時各國也以謹慎的態度面對中國的全球搶油行動，因而呈現既合作也對抗的情形；2.中國在能源管理、能源效率上仍有改善空間，相關法規的制訂與執行更是不足，而戰備儲油的建構有資金上的困難；3.中國對於新能源的發展，在資金與技術上還有許多的限制。關鍵詞：石油安全、多元化、麻六甲困局、戰略石油儲備

關鍵字

石油安全、多元化、麻六甲困局、戰略石油儲備

並列摘要

Abstract The source of energy is the foundation of economic development in a country. During the 20th century, "petroleum" has become more and more important among each kind of energy. After the innovation of China, it increasingly demands petroleum, and in 1993, it becomes the petroleum net import country. In 2003 China substituted for Japan to become the second big petroleum import country which was only inferior to US'S, already was one of main origins which the global petroleum trade increases. In order to guarantee the petroleum supply security, China carries on “the multiplication” diligently the layout, including enhances the domestic energy production to be able with using the efficiency, the establishment strategy petroleum reserve, to carry on “walks” the strategy to participate in the overseas oil development positively...and so on, simultaneously also adopts the constructing on land petroleum channel, the establishment open sea fleet, establishment multilateral dialogue mechanism each measure in the petroleum transport safeguards the security; Moreover also positively participates in the substitution energy the development. With the promotion of many operations, "the security of petroleum " has obtained the suitable promotion. At the present stage, it has difficulty in comprehensively blocking Chinese import of petroleum, but it was still possible to do because of several kinds of reasons, such as the terrorism, the blockade of marine traffic line, and the precipitous circumstances which the petroleum import quantity greatly reduces in the short-term. The research discovered that, 1. Chinese rise has the significant influence on the global energy market for example, making the oil price go up, carrying out the petroleum strategies by Beijing, ignoring the human rights that is repeatedly received attacks, and snatching the world’s petroleum which simultaneously make various countries face it cautiously; therefore, each country presents the situation either cooperation or resistance. 2. China still has to improve the energy management and efficiency. Besides, it is insufficient for the establishment and the execution of related laws, and it has the fund difficulty in constructing the combat readiness oil storage. 3. As for the development of new resources, China also has many limitations on the fund and the technology. Key word: Petroleum security, diversification, Malacca Dilemma, strategic petroleum reserve