影響貨櫃運輸運費因素之研究

自2008年全球金融危機以來，全球航運市場整體態勢持續低迷，航運業運力過剩以及市場競爭性激烈，讓很多航運公司陷入危機，甚至倒閉。航運公司為求生存，同業之間的併購、整合也在這幾年間公開進行。直接與航運公司的獲利與營收相關的就是貨櫃海運運費的漲跌，而影響海運運費的因素實為本研究所要探討的主題。在這幾年間詭異多變的海運市場中，已不是等同其他產業的類似經驗或單純供需問題所能解答。本研究除了簡介當下航運產業外，進一步摒除市場上一些複雜不可控制的條件，利用相關係數的理論，以運費指數為基準，分別以2007年至2018年間全球實質經濟成長率、油價、船艙供給成長率、貨櫃吞吐量成長率、租艙費率指數與閒置船艙比例六個因素做相關係數比對，並加以分析何種因素較影響海運運費。最後從研究結果中推斷航運市場屬於寡占市場的競爭型態，以賽局理論驗證航運市場上的競爭案例。在航運市場競爭日益激烈的時代，冀望本研究的結果能往後的航運產業中給予參考與建議。

關鍵字

運費指數；經濟成長率；油價；船艙供給；貨櫃吞吐；租艙費率；閒置船艙；相關係數；航運市場；寡占市場；賽局理論

並列摘要

The overall shipping market has remained sluggish since the global financial crisis in 2008. The over capacity and fierce market competition in shipping industry has caused many shipping carriers to fall into crisis or even bankrupt. In the past few years, the shipping carriers’ mergers, acquisitions and integrations for survival among market have also been dealt publicly. Above all, the most relevant to carrier’s profit and revenue is ocean freight fluctuation. So this study is mainly to rearch the effects on containerization freight. In the past decades, shipping market has changed, it is no longer equivalent to similar experience in other industries and it is not a simple supply-demand question. In addition to introduce the current shipping industry, this study further tries to remove some complicated and uncontrollable conditions in the market, and uses the theory of correlation coefficient, base on freight index within 2007 to 2018, to calculate the relationship strength between global real GDP, oil price, celluar fleet growth, global throughout growth, charter rate index and idle fleet ratio, and futher analyze these 6 factors’ effects on ocean freight. In an era of increasingly fierce competition in this shipping environment, Finally, learned from this research results that the shipping market belongs to “Oligopoly Market”, and set the actual competition cases as examples and these cases are verified by “Game Theory”. hope this study’s result will bring some positive suggestions or comments in the future.

並列關鍵字

freight index ； global real GDP ； oil price ； fleet growth ； global throughout growth ； charter rate index ； idle fleet ratio ； correlation coefficient ； shipping industry ； Oligopoly Market ； Game Theory