摘要
臺北捷運營運屆滿20週年，路網規模已發展出5條主線與2條支線，計有108個車站，營運里程約131.1公里。根據臺北市捷運局2016年資料顯示，每日平均載運人次達200萬人次，顯示臺北市與新北市居民高度仰賴本系統通勤，一旦因為天然災害或意外事件影響捷運運作，將造成莫大的負面影響。 為瞭解臺北捷運路網內潛在的脆弱站點，本研究引用聯合國跨政府氣候變遷小組(IPCC)所定義的脆弱度(vulnerability)影響指標：暴露度(exposure)、敏感度(sensitivity)與調適能力(adaptability)。分別計算臺北捷運路網站點脆弱度影響人次，再偵測路網中潛在的分群結構，進行整體脆弱度評估。本研究對路網的定義是以捷運車站為節點(node)，前後站之間視為具有方向性的連結(arc)，形成抽象性的位相關係(topology)路網。在脆弱度指標方面，則是利用捷出入運站閘門的旅運人次統計數據作為暴露度因子，再使用路網分析的中心性指標(centrality)，找出路網結構中易受影響的敏感站點，最後將周邊公車路線及公共自行車架數目作為加入模式計算，嘗試找出路網中仍脆弱的站點。 本研究以地理視覺化方式呈現脆弱度上述3個抽象意涵，研究結果發現單就時間維度而言，系統最為脆弱的時間為傍晚17-19點，人潮從市中心少數站點大量湧入站點。單就路線而言，最為脆弱的路線為板南線(藍線)，有9個高脆弱度的站點。路網分群結果也能給予相關單位在管理層面較為一致性的措施。
並列摘要
After 2 decades operation, the Metro Taipei now serves over 2 million passengers per day, with its 5 main lines: Wenhu Line, Tamsui-Xinyi Line, Songshan-Xindian Line, Zhonghe-Xinlu Line and Bannan Line. The network consists of 108 stations and the total length of rail is 131.1 kilometers long, which covers both Taipei and New Taipei City. Even a small accident which causes the system to stop will result in tremendous inconvenience to the passengers. In this paper, we introduce the three index, (1)exposure, (2) sensitivity, and (3)adaptability, proposed by the IPCC of the United Nations, to evaluate the vulnerability of a transportation network – the Metro Taipei. The exposure is defined as the risk of accidents and the pressure on the network. The sensitivity is defined as the betweenness centrality of the network. The betweenness centrality reveals how many times a node would be passed through between any two other nodes. The adaptability is defined as the recovering ability or the alternatives while a node is suffering an accident. The nearby bus stops and public bike stations are considered as the alternatives while a metro station is becoming disabled. The more bus stops or public bike stations means higher adaptability of a metro station. We propose an integrated vulnerability index to considering the exposure, the sensitivity, and the adaptability of each station. The result indicates some high vulnerable station, and the system is vulnerable at the work-to-home traffic peak time. The integrated vulnerability index is then visualized on the map for better illustration of the negative impact and the positive recoverability of the Metro Taipei.
參考文獻
英文部分：
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延伸閱讀
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