東協在東亞區域糧食交易量與其價格之分析 — 引力模型的應用

本研究以引力模型分析東協自由貿易區糧食進出口量變化，包含稻米、玉米、小麥與大豆，是否受東協自由貿易區的形成，而有貿易創造與貿易轉移效果存在。數據資料主要收集十一個國家從1988-2017的糧食進出口數據，並將數據區分成兩個階段觀察東亞區域糧食進出口變化。本文引力模型取用其他相關變數包括：貿易國 GDP、貿易夥伴國 GDP、貿易兩國 GDP 乘積、貿易國人口、貿易夥伴國人口與兩國間距離；再加入其他解釋變數，如糧食價格、是否有共同邊界、是否有共同語言、是否皆為東協國家、時間虛擬變數與國家政策限制。並將蒐集資料以1993分為兩個階段觀察在東協區域的糧食進出口量變化。研究實證結果發現，農業在東協自由貿易區成立後有貿易創造效果，價格與糧食進出口量中有顯著負相關。再者，研究中也發現在2008-2011之間東亞區域實施稻米的出口政策限制不僅影響單一國家，而是進一步影響整個東協區域糧食交易市場。尤其在在稻米進出口貿易的中，國家限制出口政策對於糧食的進出口量有顯著負向影響。

關鍵字

東協；貿易政策；引力模型；貿易效果；糧食價格

並列摘要

This study contributes to the debate by analyzing trade creation and diversion ef-fects of The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN on grain maket includ-ing rice, maize, wheat and soybean in East Asia. In this study a gravity model is de-veloped to explore the influence in grain trade in ASEAN, population, price of grain, GDP, ASEAN membership, geographical distance, contiguous boundary, common language, policy of export restrictions, phase time. The data used in this study is on bi-lateral trade on grain between 11 East Asia countries from 1988 to 2017. The data was divided into two phases which based on before 1993 and after 1993, to observe changes in grain imports and exports in the East Asian region. The empirical results show that agriculture has a trade creation effect, and the price and grain import and export volume which shows significant negative relation. Further-more, the study also found that the export policy restrictions on rice implementation in the East Asian region between 2008 and 2011 not only affected a single country, but also affected the entire ASEAN regional food trading market. Especially in the import and export trade of rice, the state's export restriction policy has a significant negative impact on the import and export of grain.