國際大宗穀物期貨價格波動對物價指數及產業的影響—產業關聯分析模型之應用

The Impact of International Bulk Grain Futures Price Volatility on Price Index and Industry —An Application of Input-Output Model

盧威全(Wei-chuang Lu)

指導教授 ： 洪振義

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/財務金融系/碩士(2009年)

摘要

全球糧食價格於2004~2008年持續上漲，造成世界爭搶糧食的恐慌，曾獲得諾貝爾獎的芝加哥大學貝克教授(Gary Becker)估計，假如糧價增加三分之一，富國的生活水準會降低3%，而窮國會降低20%，2007年台灣的綜合糧食自給率只有32%，其中屬於大宗穀物的小麥、玉米及大豆的自給率更只有不到2%，故大宗穀物價格對台灣經濟造成的影響，是值得思考的議題。本研究採用產業關聯分析法(Input-output Analysis)，探討國際大宗穀物期貨價格波動對台灣物價指數及產業的影響。實證分析顯示，受影響較大的部門為第1部門(農林漁牧礦業)及第2部門(食品及飲料關聯產業)，且2007年物價指數受大宗穀物影響的程度已經較以往降低。
另外，本研究在波及效果分析上，發現國際大宗穀物每英斗的價格變動4美元時，對整體產業所引發之生產誘發額、粗附加價值誘發額及雇用者所得誘發額的波及效果倍率分別為2.09倍、5.55倍及8.81倍，受波及效果影響前10大產業佔了總波及效果的63.25%。
在要因分解分析上，受國際大宗穀物期貨價格波動影響較大之第1部門(農林漁牧礦業)、第2部門(食品及飲料關聯產業)以及第6部門(商業關聯產業)的產業在加入了WTO之後，其整體表現都有正向的成長。

關鍵字

產業關聯分析 ； 糧食自給率 ； 大宗穀物

並列摘要

The rising food price from 2004 to 2008 causes the panic of contending food around the world. Professor G. Becker of the University of Chicago, who has won Nobel Prize, estimates that if the food price increases 1/3, the living standards of developed countries may go down 3%, and those of underde-veloped countries may go down 20%. The food self-sufficiency ratio of Taiwan is only 32% in 2007. The self-sufficiency ratio of wheat, corn and soybean are less than 2%. Therefore, the impact of the price of bulk grain on economy in Taiwan is worthy to be considered. By employing input-output analysis, the present study investigates the impact of international grain price volatility on the price index and industry in Taiwan. We empirically find that the first sector (including farming, forestry, fishing, husbandry and mining) and the second sector (including food and beverage and other related industries) suffer greater effect. Moreover, the price index in 2007 in Taiwan showed less impact on the price of bulk grain.
In addition, the present study by the analysis of spillover effect finds that as the price of bulk grain grows 4 US dollars every bushel, it contributes to the magnitude of the induct amount of production to the whole industry is 2.09, that of the induct amount of rough add-value is 5.55, and that of the induct amount of the employee income is 8.81. Top ten industries under the impact of spillover effect occupy 63.25% of the total spillover effect.
In the aspect of root cause analysis, the first, the second and the sixth sectors (related commercial industries) grow positively after Taiwan joined in WTO.

並列關鍵字

Input-output Analysis ； Food self-sufficiency Ratio ； Bulk Grain

參考文獻

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