匯率變動對台灣產業的波及效果

The Spillover Effect of Change in Exchange Rate on Taiwan Industry

鍾怡君(Yi-Chun Chung)

指導教授 ： 洪振義

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/財務金融系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

在影響台灣經濟成長的主要因素中，出口為重要的因素，所以出口的增加，將可提高經濟成長之動力。在金融危機過後，全球貿易衰退的現象，出口的減少充分顯現在這次的全球金融危機當中，由於台灣是出口導向的國家，因此對於我國的經濟產生很大衝擊。
本文以採用行政院主計處2009年所公布的95年產業關聯表作為基礎，並以波及效果模型來探討當匯率變動時，對於台灣產業影響之程度。實證分析顯示，當台灣增加中國之出口最終需要為50.8億美元，預期帶來經濟總和效果為82.27億美元，其中包含直接效果43.63億美元、第一次間接波及效果30.13億美元及第二次間接波及效果8.51億美元。而台灣對美國之出口最終需要減少額為12.8億美元，可以推估它將減少經濟總和效果為20.75億美元，其中包含直接效果、第一次間接波及效果及第二次間接波及效果之生產誘發額，分別為11億美元、7.6億美元及2.15億美元。
另外，在七個部門之波及效果分析的實證結果，對於台灣出口中國及美國的主要部門，影響的產業皆是以服務業為最多，其次是機械業，最後是化學業。

關鍵字

波及效果模型 ； 匯率變動 ； 產業關聯分析

並列摘要

The economic growth in Taiwan is influenced by export. Thus, the export is one of the important factors in this process. Due to financial crisis and recession in the global trade, export had decreased throughout the period. As might have been known Taiwan is an export-oriented country, which will certainly have a great impact on Taiwan''s economy.
To given sequences by The Executive Yuan (2006) accounting and statistics with the input-output table issued. In addition, spillover effects model enable to explore of exchange rate changes the in Taiwan''s industry. The research result suggests that Taiwan should do exports to China, which is about 5.08 billion dollars, and expected to gain 8.227 billion dollars for the economic total spillover effect, which includes the direct effect is 4.363 billion dollars, the first spillover effects is 3.013 billion dollars and the second spillover effect is 851 million dollars. In addition, Taiwan should do exports to USA, which should be 1.28 billion dollars, and expected to decrease 2.075 billion dollars for the economic total spillover effect, which includes the direct effect, the first spillover effects and the second spillover effects is 1.1 billion dollars, 760 million dollars and 215 million dollars respectively.
On the side, analysis of empirical results in the spillover effects of the seven sectors, the main sectors of Taiwan''s exports to China and the United States are based on the services sector accounted for up to, followed by the machinery industry, and finally the chemical industry.

並列關鍵字

Input-Output Analysis ； Exchange Rate Change ； Spillover Effect Model

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