人口變動、社區發展與火災損失之關係

本研究旨在探討人口變動、社區發展與火災損失之關係，俾利政府官員釐定防火政策之參考，實證時採用1999-2016年各縣市所提供之統計資料，檢驗各縣市人口變動及社區發展對火災損失的影響。結果發現社區發展程度對火災損失負向影響。其次，社區發展對自然增加率對火災損失機率具備負向的調節效果。最後，社區發展對社會增加率對火災損失機率具備正向的調節效果。

關鍵字

社區發展程度；自然增加率；社會增加率；火災損失

並列摘要

This paper aims to explore the relationship between population change, community development differences and fire loss to help national government officials in deciding Population policy and Damage Prevention policy. This paper adopt 1999~2016 panel data to construct the regression model test causal relationship between the crime and composition of population growth in recent years, and the interactive effect of community development will be considered. The composition of population growth will be divided into natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and social increase (the population increase by migration). The results of this paper show that community development will decrease the fire probability. In addition, community development will negative moderate the relationship between natural increase and fire probability. And community development will positively moderate the relationship between social increase and fire probability.