本研究目的為運用統計科學方法,建構有效的財務預警模型,對企業可能發生財務危機做事前預測,提供投資人選股策略(Investment decision)參考,在公司財務危機發生前做出理性的投資判斷,避免投資損失。實證分析上,使用財務比率與非財務比率變數,分析台灣上市上櫃之電子產業,建構Logit迴歸模型。實證結果發現,預測電子業公司績效(Corporate performance)之主要變數在財務結構、償債能力、獲利能力、現金流量與公司治理指標;愈接近財務危機發生時間,償債能力愈是重要;避免更換會計師,增加外部人(Outsiders)會計師監督與公司治理(Corporate governance)能力,可降低發生財務危機的可能性;儘早設置內部人(Insiders)獨立董監事,公司治理能力增強,可提高公司績效。準此、本研究之實證價值與管理涵義為投資決策、公司治理、財務危機與財務預測。
The purpose of this study was to construct an effective prediction model for financial crisis by using the statistical scientific method, where as the model will help the investors make the rational investment decisions in order to prevent from receiving no return of their hard-earned capital. In the empirical analysis, the financial ratios and non-financial ratios constructing in the research were to analyze the Listed electronic companies in Taiwan Stock market and construct the Logit regressions model. The findings for the principal financial ratio variables in predicting the crisis of electronic companies were financial structure, solvency, profitability, cash flow as well as corporate governance indicators .When the financial crisis is taking place, the influence of the solvency is substantial. Avoids replacing accountant, increases accountants to supervise and abilities of corporate governance, can improve the corporate performance. The paper is useful to any researchers or practitioners who are focused on investment decision, corporate governance, financial distress and financial forecasting implementation.