以縱橫資料迴歸分析全球化程度對已開發與新興工業化國家發展觀光產業之影響

本研究以每人平均國內生產毛額(GDP)為區隔變數，將1995-2009年間全球觀光產業資料完整之34個國家，區分為已開發國家(19個；平均GDP兩萬美元以上)與新興工業化國家(15個；平均GDP兩萬美元以下)，運用縱橫資料迴歸(panel data regression)，分析不同區隔(不同所得水準)之國家，其全球化程度對該國發展觀光事業績效之影響。本研究採用全球化KOF指數作為全球化程度之替代變數（全球化總指數之成份包括經濟全球化指數、社會全球化指數與政治全球化指數），輔以各國匯率、每人平均國內生產毛額與消費者物價指數為總體經濟之控制變數，針對觀光外匯收入、國人出境消費金額、國人境內消費金額、觀光入境人數與出境觀光人數等六組國家觀光產業績效指標(被解釋變數)一一加以迴歸，故有六組迴歸結果。實證結果顯示：(一)已開發國家的經濟全球化程度已趨於成熟，過度著力於經濟全球化之進一步開放，反而會對國家發展觀光產業之績效發生負面影響；(二)新興工業化國家經濟全球化程度對國家觀光產業發展績效影響並不明顯；（三）全球化總指數之正向影響效果高於經濟全球化、社會全球化、政治全球化三個指數影響效果之加總，故提昇國家全面全球化即能提昇國家發展觀光產業之績效；(四)無論已開發國家或新興工業化國家，提升國家全面全球化程度都能為國家發展觀光產業帶來正面幫助。

關鍵字

縱橫資料迴歸；全球化總指數；經濟全球化；社會全球化；政治全球化；觀光產業

並列摘要

This study takes the gross domestic product (GDP) as segmentation variables , classifying the 34 countries which have complete data of the global tourism industry during 1995-2009 as developed countries (19 countries, whose average GDP are over twenty thousand U.S. dollars) and newly industrialized country (15 countries, whose average GDP are over twenty thousand U.S. dollars). By using panel data regression, it is available to analyze the influence from countries of different segments (different income levels ). This study take the KOF Index of globalization as substitute variable of degree of globalization, the KOF Index of globalization is a composite of the index of economic globalization, social globalization and political globalization, supplemented by exchange rate, gross domestic product and consumer price index for the control variables of macro-economy. receipts of international tourism, visitor exports, expenditures of international tourism, domestic travel & tourism spending, arrival of non resident visitors and number of departures are separately used for the explained variable of the regression, so there are six sets of regression results of this study. The empirical results indicate that (a) The degree of economic globalization of the developed countries has matured, however, excessive focus on further opening of economic globalization might lead to negative effect of performance of tourism industry for a country. (b) Economic globalization degree of emerging countries has little effect on the performance of nations' tourism industry development. (c) The positive effects of globalization index is higher than the total impact of economic, social and political globalization. Thus, enhancing the comprehensive national globalization is able to promote the performance of the tourism industry. (d) Whether developed countries or emerging countries, enhancing national comprehensive globalization can bring a positive effect on the development of their tourism industry.

並列關鍵字

panel data regression ； index of globalization ； index of economic globalization ； index of social globalization ； index of political globalization ； tourism industry