總體經濟指標對中國大陸與臺灣國防支出之影響

The Effect of Major Economic Indicators on Mainland China and Taiwan Defense Expenditure

林政一(Cheng-Yi Lin)

指導教授 ： 方顯光

共同指導教授 ： 吳克(Ke Wu)

健行科技大學/商學院/國際企業管理研究所/碩士(2013年)

摘要

近幾年來由於全球經濟不景氣的影響，以及亞洲金融風暴與全球金融海嘯肆虐，造成全球經濟衰退，也使兩岸國內經濟成長趨於減緩；另外，近來東亞肇生主要海洋權益與主權紛爭包括：我國、中共與南海周邊國家有關南海主權之爭議；我國、中共與日本對釣魚臺列嶼之主權爭議；俄羅斯與日本對 「南千島群島（北方四島）」的主權爭議；南韓（獨島）與日本（竹島）主權之爭議；中共與日本對「沖之鳥礁」及東海油氣田的主權爭執等，引發區域性軍備競賽。因此，臺灣會因中國大陸武力威脅影響其戰略目標、兵力轉型，其國防支出勢必受經濟不景氣的影響而各有其增減，甚至也會受到各其他政府預算支出及各項政事別支出的排擠。所以，如何決定適當比率及配額之國防支出，遂成為資源分配上的重大決策之一。研究引用國內各項重要經濟指標為影響因素，且透過統計上相關分析的方法來過濾變數資料間的相關程度與運用多元線性迴歸分析的方法來配適資料及建構模型，進而探討國防支出與中國大陸及我國各項重要經濟指標間的關係。

關鍵字

總體經濟指標 ； 國防支出 ； 迴歸分析

並列摘要

Caused by the global economic recession, the cross-strait economic growth tends to slow down in recent years due to the global economic downturn, the Asian financial crisis and the global financial tsunami raging; recently the East Yazhao students major maritime rights and interests and sovereignty disputes including:China, Communist China and the neighboring countries in the South China Sea dispute about sovereignty over the South China Sea; China, Communist China and Japan, the dispute over sovereignty of the Diaoyutai; Russia and Japan on the dispute over sovereignty in the South Kuril Islands (four northern islands) "; South Korea (Dokdo) and Japan (bamboo Island) sovereignty dispute; Okinotorishima reef and oil and gas fields in the East China Sea sovereignty dispute between Communist China and Japan to trigger a regional arms race. Therefore, Taiwan will affect the strategic objectives of the threat of force by mainland China, force transformation, its defense spending is bound to be affected by the economic downturn, the impact of their own increase or decrease, or even other government budget expenditures and Affair spending will also be exclusion. So, how to determine the appropriate rate quota defense spending, and became one of the major decisions on the allocation of resources. The study cites the important economic indicators for the influencing factors, and statistical analysis methods to filter the degree of correlation between the variable data and the use of multiple linear regression analysis to fit the data to build the model, and then discuss defense spending with the relationship between the Chinese mainland and China's important economic indicators.

並列關鍵字

Major Economic Indicators ； Defense Spending ； Regression Analysis

參考文獻

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