國防預算影響因素之研究

A Study on Factors of the National Defense Budget

陳勳慧(Hsun H. Chen) ； 葉正國(Zheng G. Yeh)

《國防管理學術暨實務研討會》 第十八屆 (2010/06) Pp. 235-249

https://doi.org/10.29497/GFGL.201006.0235

摘要

國防預算影響因素很多，近年來國家安全推及於國防預算額度的爭議不斷，本研究選取27個國家之1991年至2008年間資料，探討影響國防預算因素；以階層迴歸模型實證分析結果發現：各國國防預算規模最重要受制於該國經濟實力的支持，經濟能力愈強，國防預算獲得額度愈高；其次，軍事能力建構源於確保國家安全，加入軍事能力各變數後，對國防預算模型有增量且達顯著水準的解釋力，軍事化程度與空軍防禦力的提升，使國防預算規模需求增加；然而，國防預算限制因素除整體環境影響外，與國家敵情之軍事威脅、區域經貿發展皆有顯著正向變動關聯，加入前二項虛擬變數後探討，使各自變數與國防預算之關聯性得到深入且合理的解釋。

關鍵字

國防預算 ； 國內生產毛額 ； 軍事能力

並列摘要

This study aims to analyze the influence factor about national defense budget. In addition to exemplifying the arms of various countries by the ”Military Balance” of more than 27 countries collected for 1991-2008 year data, this study also applied hierarchical regression analysis as the basis of an overall structural discussion so as to understand the connection between the variables and its impact and influential extent on national defense budget. The conclusion of research reveal the following：(1) The national defense budget was influence almost by the economic environment factors as Gross Domestic Product. (2) Besides, it was also influence by the military capability changes inside the country as military degree and air defense capability particularly. (3) There are significant differences between the national defense budgets of various countries with threatening and enter into Free Trade Area. Furthermore, the relation of influence factors could be elucidated through and reasonable after added conflict and trade dummy variable.

並列關鍵字

National Defense Budget ； Gross Domestic Product ； Military Capability