金融危機對國防預算編列與軍費支用之影響

The Effect of the Financial Crisis on the Defense Budget and Military Expenditure

陳美惠(Mei-Huich Chen) ； 黃建中(Chien-Chung Huang)

《國防管理學術暨實務研討會》 第十九屆 (2011/06) Pp. 57-77

https://doi.org/10.29497/GFGL.201106.0057

摘要

2008年金融海嘯引起國際金融市場的動盪不安，各國政府紛提出救市方案，而國防預算首當其衝成為多數國家主要刪減的預算。但為維護國家利益與捍衛國家安全，軍事建設與轉型仍需正常運作，故金融危機是否會影響一國編列的國防預算與軍事支出為本研究主要探討議題。本研究以1988年至2009年間東亞與七大工業組織等15國的縱橫資料為樣本對象，透過ADRL共整合模型探討在不同金融危機類型發生期間，國家經濟發展與國防預算編列或是國防支出間之關連性。本研究之實證結果顯示，部份國家因受到金融危機影響，對國防支出負向影響是顯著的，而部份卻是不明顯，此種不一致的現象咎其原因，是國家的地理環境、經濟政策與內外武裝衝突所致的預算排擠效應。

關鍵字

金融危機 ； 國防支出 ； 經濟成長 ； 排擠效應

並列摘要

In 2008, the World Financial Crisis caused the disturbance of the international financial markets. Each government of the world offered some cases of relieving the markets. And the most of the countries tried to reduce the budget of the national defense. However, in order to maintain the national benefits and security, the development of the military should keep working. So this research primarily discuss that ”Would the financial crisis affect the national budgets and the military expenditure?” This research investigates the samples of fifteen countries of the East Asia and G7. And we also use ARDL cointegation models to look up the effects and relations of the national economical development with the budget or the expenditure of the national defense with the strategy of dealing with each period of the financial crisis. The result of the empirical study presents the negative effects of the military expenditure of some countries from the financial crisis is significant, but the else is not. The reasons of the difference are the affection of the Budget Crowd-out Effects from the geographical environment, economic strategies and the conflicts from inside or outside of the countries.

並列關鍵字

Financial Crisis ； Defense Spending ； GDP ； Crowd-out Effects